The 500 million years ocean history

Brachiopod Paraspirifer bownockeri from the Middle Devonian of Ohio (USA); Width: 5.6 cm. Picture: U. Jansen, Senckenberg Museum, Frankfurt am Main.

GEOMAR coordinates European research and education project BASE-LiNE Earth
02.03.2015 / Kiel. As the history of the oceans can be reconstructed in the past 500 million based on calcareous shells of fossil marine life, busy to date with the research project BASE-LiNE Earth. At the same time it enables talented young scientists and scientists a doctorate in an international research environment. The European Union supports the at GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel coordinated project with a total of 3.8 million euros.

Almost all life on earth would be extinct - and that at least five times in the past 500 million years. The environmental changes that have each led to the mass extinction, the oceans play an important role in almost all cases. How did it happen that was phased so hostile to life as a life-giving force sea? And why have some species still survive? These are fundamental questions that will be examined in the next three years as part of the European research project BASE-LiNE Earth with innovative technologies and methods. In addition to answering the research questions BASE LiNE Earth serves as the training of talented young scholars and scientists who are recruited by means of a demanding selection process from all over the world and doctorate within the scope of the project. 

The EU promotes the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel coordinated project under a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Action in Horizon2020-Pogramm with a total of 3.8 million euros. The challenge for the future BASE-LiNE Earth-doctoral students, is to provide information to gain from distant epochs of earth's history. "When historians want to know about events 100 or 200 years ago, they visit libraries or archives where there is written evidence from these times," says project coordinator Prof. Dr. Anton Eisenhauer from GEOMAR. "We also use archives. 
However, they see something different. It is, for example, the calcareous shells of fossil brachiopods in which the relevant data on the chemical history of ocean water are stored reliably, "explains the Kiel geochemist on. 

The information is in the calcite shells of course not writing before, but encrypted in the chemical and mineralogical composition. "If we precise the ratios of elements such as strontium, magnesium, boron, or measure of the isotopic to each other, we can decrypt the information," says Professor Eisenhauer.

This then the age of the shell, as well as the chemical composition of the previous ocean and prevailing environmental conditions such as water temperature and the acidity of the water can be reconstructed. We know, for example, know that during the greatest mass extinction 251 million years ago, the ocean contained no oxygen and was acidified to a large extent. 

"This is similar to some scenarios that we expect for the future of our ocean," explains Professor Eisenhauer. Model calculations are carried out within the framework of the project should show how far the former changes in the environment are transferable to the present day. The challenge is to gain this information and to make it usable. In collaboration with industry partners modern analytical methods for obtaining information in cooperation with business partners in this area in the context of BASE-LiNE Earth therefore be generated and developed. The project involves a total of 21 scientific institutions from eight European countries and partners from Canada, Israel, Palestine and Australia involved. 15 PhD positions will announce the project this spring, two of them for the GEOMAR in Kiel. 

The Integrated School of Ocean Sciences (ISOS) provides at the University of Kiel for a comprehensive training program in which the scholars not only pursue their academic goals, but also learn more professional qualifications, skills and interact with each other.  In the coming years, the parties want to do their topic also by means of exhibitions and school supplies to a wider audience. "Of course we also bind the doctoral students, which thus also learn to communicate their work understandable," says the project coordinator. For more information on the project website www.baseline-earth.eu.

Source: Geomar

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The role of gravitational instabilities in deposition of volcanic ash: The example of Eyjafjallajökull

Figure 1 from Manzella et al.: Original and processed snapshot of the video of the Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) plume as observed on 4 May 2010. White arrows indicate finger positions. This article is Open Access.

Boulder, Colo., USA – Volcanic ash poses a significant hazard for areas close to volcanoes and for aviation. For example, the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, clearly demonstrated that even small-to-moderate explosive eruptions, in particular if long-lasting, can paralyze entire sectors of societies, with significant, global-level, economic impacts. In this open-access Geology article, Irene Manzella and colleagues present the first quantitative description of the dynamics of gravitational instabilities and particle aggregation based on the 4 May 2010 eruption.

Their analysis also reveals some important shortcomings in the Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersal Models (VATDMs) typically used to forecast the dispersal of volcanic ash. In particular, specific processes exist that challenge the view of sedimentation of fine particles from volcanic plumes and that are currently poorly understood: particle aggregation and gravitational instabilities. These appear as particle-rich "fingers" descending from the base of volcanic clouds and have commonly been observed during volcanic explosive eruptions.

Based on direct observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull plume, on the correlation with the associated fallout deposit, and on dedicated laboratory analogue experiments, Irene Manzella and colleagues show how fine ash in these particle-rich fingers settles faster than individual particles and that aggregation and gravitational instabilities are closely related. Both phenomena can significantly contribute to reducing fine-ash lifetime in the atmosphere and, therefore, it is crucial to include them in VATDMs in order to provide accurate forecasting of ash dispersal and sedimentation.

Source: Gsa

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Deep Sea Mining: What are the risks?

During the launch event in Kiel, the project partners plan investigations to ecosystems around the manganese nodules. Photo: J. Steffen, GEOMAR

GEOMAR coordinates European cooperation for the risk assessment
01.29.2015 / Kiel. 50 specialists in deep-sea ecology, marine mining and deep-sea observation of 25 European research institutions meeting this week at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. This will free the start of a three-year research project to investigate the risks of potential ore mining on the seabed. The project called "JPI Oceans Ecological aspects of deep-sea mining" is coordinated at GEOMAR.

The world population is growing. This also means that more and more people need a home, want to work with computers and other electronic devices and consume energy. For the construction of houses for the manufacture of electronic goods, but also for the production of wind turbines will require significant amounts of various metals. Currently, all metal ores are promoted on almost a third of the earth's surface - on the continents. 

In some regions of the ocean manganese nodules are recorded in the Atlantic as here, close together on the ocean floors. Photo: Nils Brenke, CeNak

However, in recent decades engaged again, the other two thirds, the oceans, the focus of governments and resource companies. "Many questions about a potential ore mining in the deep sea, however, are still open," says Dr. Matthias Haeckel from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. He is the scientific coordinator of the "Ecological aspects of deep-sea mining" project to investigate the potential environmental risks in the next three years. A consortium of research ministries in eleven European countries promotes it as part of the Joint Programme Healthy and Productive Seas (JPI Oceans) initiative with a total of 9.5 million euros. 

 In the Clarion-Clipperton Zone are the largest known manganese nodule deposits. Here, the ISA has been awarded 13 research licenses. Image Reproduced from the GEBCO world map 2014

This week, the project starts with a kick-off meeting at GEOMAR. A total of 25 partner institutions from these eleven countries involved in the project. The focus is primarily known as manganese nodules. It is spherical or cauliflower-shaped Erzknollen, which are usually at depths below 4000 meters on the large abyssal plains. They consist not only from the eponymous manganese, but also contain iron and coveted metals such as copper, cobalt or nickel. Already in the 1970s, there were initial plans to reduce manganese nodules from the deep sea, but never came out on trials. The largest reserves are currently known from the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone in the central Pacific. As a result of these activities in international waters on the basis of the International Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the International Seabed Authority (International Seabed Authority, ISA) was founded in 1994. 

It manages the entire seabed beyond the exclusive economic zone (200 nautical miles) of individual states. To date, the ISA has awarded 13 research licenses for exploration of manganese nodule fields in the Pacific, including in Germany and other European countries. 

                     Sample of the seabed in DISCOL area with top resting manganese nodules. 
                                                    Photo: M. Haeckel, GEOMAR

"But there is no mining licenses, which would only be a next step," said Dr. Haeckel. Since the ISA also aims to ensure effective protection of the marine environment from the potential consequences of ocean mining, relevant research for the licensees are required. "Of course industrial activities on the ocean floor will have an impact, because they disturb the soil and the water column about it," says Dr. Haeckel. Therefore, it is important to know the ecosystems on the sea floor and its local, regional and national connections and interactions accurately. Already this year, several expeditions of the new German research vessel SONNE in the Pacific are planned. 

The first trips in March and April perform the participating scientists to the German, Belgian and French license areas and in a defined by the ISA reserve in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. Further trips from July to October have the so-called DISCOL area in Peru Basin to the destination. There, in 1989, a very limited area of the seabed was plowed for research purposes. "The goal of this experiment is to recognize the long-term consequences of large-area device used for deep-sea sediments," explains Professor Jens Greinert from GEOMAR, who will lead one of the exits to DISCOL area. Now, a quarter century after the disturbance experiment, the scientists will examine the then machined seabed areas exactly compare with adjacent undisturbed areas to determine, can recover disturbed communities in the deep sea as fast. "We should get to know each other better before we start, a large area to intervene in the deep sea it easy," says project coordinator Dr. Haeckel. 

Source: GEOMAR

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Drilling Reveals Fault Rock Architecture in New Zealand’s Central Alpine Fault

            Figure 1: Location map of study by Virginia Toy et al. Image Credit: GSA
Boulder, Colo., USA - Rocks within plate boundary scale fault zones become fragmented and altered over the earthquake cycle. They both record and influence the earthquake process. In this new open-access study published in Lithosphere on 4 Feb., Virginia Toy and colleagues document fault rocks surrounding New Zealand's active Alpine Fault, which has very high probability of generating a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake in the near future.

Descriptions already suggest that the complex fault rock sequence results from slip at varying rates during multiple past earthquakes, and even sometimes during aseismic slip. They also characterize this fault before rupture; Toy and colleagues anticipate that repeat observations after the next event will provide a previously undescribed link between changes in fault rocks and the ground shaking response. They write that in the future this sort of data might allow realistic ground shaking predictions based on observations of other "dormant" faults.

The first phase of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP-1) yielded a continuous lithological transect through fault rock surrounding the Alpine fault (South Island, New Zealand). This allowed micrometer- to decimeter-scale variations in fault rock lithology and structure to be delineated on either side of two principal slip zones intersected by DFDP-1A and DFDP-1B. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of fault rock lithologies within 70 m of the Alpine fault based on analysis of hand specimens and detailed petrographic and petrologic analysis. The sequence of fault rock lithologies is consistent with that inferred previously from outcrop observations, but the continuous section afforded by DFDP-1 permits new insight into the spatial and genetic relationships between different lithologies and structures. We identify principal slip zone gouge, and cataclasite-series rocks, formed by multiple increments of shear deformation at up to coseismic slip rates. A 20−30-m-thick package of these rocks (including the principal slip zone) forms the fault core, which has accommodated most of the brittle shear displacement. 

This deformation has overprinted ultramylonites deformed mostly by grain-size-insensitive dislocation creep. Outside the fault core, ultramylonites contain low-displacement brittle fractures that are part of the fault damage zone. Fault rocks presently found in the hanging wall of the Alpine fault are inferred to have been derived from protoliths on both sides of the present-day principal slip zone, specifically the hanging-wall Alpine Schist and footwall Greenland Group. This implies that, at seismogenic depths, the Alpine fault is either a single zone of focused brittle shear that moves laterally over time, or it consists of multiple strands. Ultramylonites, cataclasites, and fault gouge represent distinct zones into which deformation has localized, but within the brittle regime, particularly, it is not clear whether this localization accompanies reductions in pressure and temperature during exhumation or whether it occurs throughout the seismogenic regime. These two contrasting possibilities should be a focus of future studies of fault zone architecture.

Source:GSA

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What is the Benefits of ISS Research - A interview Video

Earth framing the International Space Station

Earth framing the International Space Station in May 2010 following undocking of Atlantis during the STS-132 mission. (NASA)

Almost as soon as the International Space Station was habitable, researchers began using it to study the impact of microgravity and other space effects on several aspects of our daily lives. This unique scientific platform continues to enable researchers from all over the world to put their talents to work on innovative experiments that could not be done anywhere else. 

Although each space station partner has distinct agency goals for station research, each partner shares a unified goal to extend the resulting knowledge for the betterment of humanity. We may not know yet what will be the most important discovery gained from the space station, but we already have some amazing breakthroughs! In the areas of human health, telemedicine, education and observations of Earth from space, there are already demonstrated benefits to human life. Vaccine development research, station-generated images that assist with disaster relief and farming, and education programs that inspire future scientists, engineers and space explorers are just some examples of research benefits. 

The stories featured here summarize the scientific, technological and educational accomplishments of research on the space station that has and will continue to have an impact on life on Earth.

The benefits outlined here serve as examples of the space station's potential as a groundbreaking scientific research facility. Through advancing the state of scientific knowledge of our planet, looking after our health, and providing a space platform that inspires and educates the science and technology leaders of tomorrow, these benefits will drive the legacy of the space station as its research strengthens economies and enhances the quality of life here on Earth for all people.

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Source: Nasa

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A Long dry spell doomed Mexican city 1,000 years ago

Ruins of the city of Cantona in the Mexican state of Puebla, with the mountain Cerro Pizarro in the background. The city was abandoned almost 1,000 years ago, probably as a result of a prolonged dry spell. (Ines Urdaneta image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.)

A UC Berkeley study sheds new light on this question, providing evidence that a prolonged period of below-average rainfall was partly responsible for the abandonment of one such city, Cantona, between A.D. 900 and A.D. 1050.

At its peak, Cantona, located in a dry, volcanic basin (La Cuenca Oriental) east of today’s Mexico City, was one of the largest cities in the New World, with 90,000 inhabitants. The area was a major source of obsidian, and the city may have played a military role alongside an important trade route from the Veracruz coast into the highlands.

To assess the climate in that area before and after Cantona’s collapse, UC Berkeley geographers analyzed sediment cores from a lake located 20 miles south of the former city. They found evidence of a 650-year period of frequent droughts that extended from around A.D. 500 to about A.D. 1150. This was part of a long-term drying trend in highland Mexico that started 2,200 years ago, around 200 B.C. The climate became wetter again in about A.D. 1300, just prior to the rise of the Aztec empire.

“The decline of Cantona occurred during this dry interval, and we conclude that climate change probably played a role, at least towards the end of the city’s existence,” said lead author Tripti Bhattacharya, a UC Berkeley graduate student.

Surprisingly, the population of Cantona increased during the early part of the dry period, perhaps because of political upheaval elsewhere that increased the importance of the heavily fortified city, she said. Teotihuacan, less than 100 miles to the west, was in decline at the time, also possibly because of more frequent droughts. 

Lake Aljojuca, Mexico
The maar lake Aljojuca, 20 miles south of Cantona, yielded sediments that recorded a lengthy series of droughts between A.D. 500 and 1150. (Tripti Bhattacharya photo)

“In a sense the area became important because of the increased frequency of drought,” said UC Berkeley associate professor of geography Roger Byrne. “But when the droughts continued on such a scale, the subsistence base for the whole area changed and people just had to leave. The city was abandoned.”

Bhattacharya, Byrne and their colleagues report their findings in an article appearing this week in the early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The UC Berkeley researchers analyzed lake cores provided by scientists at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Juriquilla, Querétaro, Mexico and the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany.

Political upheaval and climate change

Byrne emphasized that the area’s typical monsoon weather with wet summers and dry winters did not stop, but was interrupted by frequent short-term droughts, no doubt affecting crops and water supplies. Today the area is close to the northern limit of maize production without irrigation, and would have been particularly vulnerable to drier conditions, he said.

Byrne, a member of the Berkeley Initiative on Global Change Biology (BiGCB) and curator of fossil pollen in the Museum of Paleontology, has studied sediment cores from many lakes in Mexico and California, and is particularly interested in possible links between climate change and human activities.

Nearly 20 years ago, he learned of Cantona and traveled with students to the areas three times to obtain cores from lakes near the site, most of which are maar lakes created by magma explosions. They are deep and often contain undisturbed and regularly layered sediments ideal for chronological studies.

Tripti Bhattacharya
Tripti Bhattacharya analyzed carbonates in lake sediments to explore the climate history of the Cuenca Oriental east of Mexico City. (Ellie Broadman photo)

German colleagues cored this particular lake, Aljojuca, in 2007, and Bhattacharya traveled to Potsdam to collect sediment samples. Oxygen isotope ratios in carbonate sediments are correlated with the ratio of precipitation to evaporation and thus indicate aridity. Organic material in the sediments was used for accelerator mass spectroscopy carbon-14 dating.

“We can show that both the growth and decline of the site took place during a time period of frequent drought, which forces us to think in more nuanced ways about how political and social factors interact with environmental factors to cause social and cultural change,” Bhattacharya said. “That makes the study particularly interesting.”

Bhattacharya noted that more studies are necessary to reconstruct the prehistoric climate of highland Mexico. Such studies could reveal the causes of prehistoric climatic change and whether they were similar to the factors that regulate the region’s climate today, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Co-authors include Harald Böhnel and Kurt Wogau of UNAM, Juriquilla; Ulrike Kienel of the German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam; B. Lynn Ingram of UC Berkeley; and Susan Zimmerman of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The work was funded by the National Science Foundation.

Source: UC Berkeley

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Satellite Animation Shows February Return of the Pineapple Express

An animation of satellite imagery from NOAA's GOES-West satellite from Feb. 1 to Feb. 4, 2015 captured the movement of a stream of clouds associated with moisture called "The Pineapple Express." Image Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project, Dennis Chesters

The "Pineapple Express" has set up again and is bringing wet weather to the U.S. Pacific Northwest. An animation of satellite imagery from NOAA's GOES-West satellite from Feb. 1 to Feb. 4, 2015 captured the movement of a stream of clouds associated with moisture that is expected to bring rain and snow to the region over the next several days.

The ‘‘Pineapple Express’’ occurs when warm air and lots of moisture are transported from the Central Pacific, near Hawaii, to the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

A wide-field movie by NOAA's GOES-West satellite shows the Pineapple Express' stream of clouds and moisture moving into the Pacific Northwest. The video was created by NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

“Good news for Northern California and the Pacific Northwest," said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "Beginning Wednesday, a series of storms pumped up by a moisture-laden ‘Pineapple Express’ system surging out of the warm tropical Pacific will deliver some small relief to rain and snow starved California. Though not a drought buster, we Californians are hoping this might be a preview of coming attractions for February and March. We are in the fourth quarter of our winter rain season and need a ‘hail mary’ to beat this drought down,” Patzert said.

On Feb.4 NOAA's National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (NPC) in College Park, Maryland issued a short range forecast discussion about the Pineapple Express. NPC noted: A weather system that's tapping into abundant moisture in the Pacific will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the Pacific Northwest beginning Wednesday. The rain will spread into northern California on Thursday and is expected to continue through the weekend. Some areas could see in excess of 10 inches of rain through early Saturday.

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The Pineapple Express is expected to affect areas from northwest California into coastal Oregon and Washington State. NPC noted that the "Express" is expected to produce mostly light to moderate rainfall totals for the coastal Pacific Northwest on Feb. 4, with much heavier totals expected the following two days.

GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes.

Source: Nasa

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The mystery of the Alpine long-eared bat

                              An Alpine long-eared bat fully airborne , UPV/EHU

The alpine long-eared bat was discovered in the Austrian Alps in 2003; hence its name. Yet later on specimens were found in other milder environments as well, in Croatia, Greece and Crete, and what is more, often close to sea level. Members of the Behavioural Ecology and Evolution Group of the UPV/EHU’s Faculty of Science and Technology studied the distribution and way of life of this species, and found that it forages and reproduces in mostly alpine environments (above the treeline), a unique case among bats. As the biologist Antton Alberdi explained, “the common name of the species not only refers to the place where it came from but describes its nature, too.” Indeed, the researcher concluded that the resources used by the Alpine long-eared bat are the same as the ones used by alpine birds and rodents: in the Pyrenees, for example, it lives at an altitude of between 1,500 and 2,500 metres and hides under rocks, in crevices and on ledges.

Nevertheless, how is it possible that an animal that only lives above 1,500 metres in the Pyrenees can be found at sea level in Croatia? Alberdi was involved in seeking the answer to this question in his PhD thesis. Alberdi identified and quantified the environmental conditions that determine the distribution of the Alpine long-eared bat (Plecotus macrobullaris) to try to understand why this species is restricted to mountain environments and why it can appear at sea level at the same time. After that, in order to see whether the results obtained could be extrapolated to other species, he compared the distributions of 503 vertebrates with those of the bats, and found five vertebrates that have similar geographical distributions to that of the bat: the white-winged snowfinch, the Alpine chough or yellow-billed chough, the wallcreeper, the Alpine accentor and the European snow vole. The distribution of all of them is very broad, from Western Europe all the way to Asia, but they are restricted to the main mountainous areas. He studied their ecological features to see whether they were all following a common biogeographical pattern in order to work out whether they were following a common distribution model.

They need rugged places

The basic ecological features of these vertebrates and those of the Alpine long-eared bat are very similar: they all use rocks (crevices, ledges or crushed stones) as places to hide, and they need open spaces to forage. They have also seen that they can be found in cold mountain environments (in the Alps) as well as in hot ones (in the mountains of Iran and Syria, etc.) and that suggests that the reasons that restrict these species to mountainous areas are not climatic ones: they are linked to topography. In other words, they are not in mountainous areas because they cannot withstand a hot environment, but because high mountain habitats offer them the characteristics they need. In some cases, in Croatia, for example, these conditions can be found at lower altitudes, and that explains why the species can be found at sea level. Furthermore, as they have the capacity to withstand the cold, they can use the alpine habitats that other species cannot exploit and thus avoid competition. In any case, “it cannot be said that the climate does not exert any influence,” said the researcher. “In fact, the climate determines the altitude ranges that each species can live in.”

According to the researcher, to preserve the species it is essential to know everything about them: how they live, why they are present in the places where they are present, etc. In the case of these species, therefore, climate change will not exert such an effect in the future; “more attention will need to be devoted to other factors: human exploitation, pasture use, etc.,” he explained. The researcher believes that the rise in treelines taking place as a result of the decline in the pressure of livestock will affect these species most. Indeed, as the treelines recede, the surface area suited to the habitats of these species will be reduced, because other species will also recede and that way the pressure will increase. They are now working to quantify that effect.

Source: Elhuyar Fundazioa

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Climate change accelerates maturing of grape in wine production

                             Johann Martínez-Lüscher , Nafarroako Unibertsitatea

The increase in temperatures and of CO2 levels – the consequences of climate change – accelerates the maturing of grapes in wine production, affecting colour and possibly aromas”. This was the conclusion of the PhD thesis defended by Johann Martínez-Lüscher, undertaken jointly by the University of Navarra and the University of Bordeaux.

The biologist explained that if the forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of a level of 700ppm of carbon dioxide and a temperature increase of 4ºC are proved correct, “the accumulation of sugars could be so rapid that the rest of these processes that depend on this will not be capable of keeping up. This will mean that, on comparing grapes with the same concentration of sugars or degree of alcohol, the crops under climate change conditions will have poorer colouration and this will be noticed in the wine”.

In fact, “it is increasingly more frequent to find wines with a higher alcoholic degree due to the over maturing of the grape”. Nonetheless, in the framework of climate change, the consequences can vary. “For example, the changes in levels of ultraviolet radiation or the decrease in rainfall may have antagonistic effects to those caused by an increase in temperature or CO2 levels. Thus, there are many unknowns about what the future holds”, he added.

Wine in a new scenario

In this way wine production will have to find solutions in order to confront environmental challenges. “The use of slower maturing ‘clones’ (sub-varieties) could be one of the possible strategies. It would also be very tempting to substitute the varieties planted in each location by others better adapted to warmer climates, but this would to a great extent mean giving up the typical characteristics of each variety of our wines – something unthinkable to date”.

Nevertheless, as this expert pointed out, climate change can provide new opportunities: for example, the production of a type of wine in cooler climes where it was not possible before. “This is the case of the incipient wine industry in the United Kingdom where I intend to continue working”, stated the researcher.

Mr. Martínez-Lüscher’s research has been financed by the University of Navarra, the Navarre-Aquitane Cross-Border Cooperation Programme, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, and the 7th European Union Framework Programme.

Source: Elhuyar Fundazioa

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NOAA’s investments in weather models and partnerships paying off

Early improvements effective in forecasting recent Nor’easter; future forecast model upgrades planned
As the Northeast digs out from this week’s blizzard, a new NOAA-led effort to improve the forecasting of such high impact weather events is reaching an important early benchmark. One of the first major improvements - upgrading the resolution of three global forecast models -- has already shown its effectiveness. One of these models, the newly upgraded Global Forecast System (GFS) model, provided one of the most precise forecasts of the track, intensity, precipitation, and distribution of the Nor’easter. The other research models provided important forecast information, as well.

“The Global Forecast System did remarkably well in the recent Nor’easter,” said Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This is due to the recent improvements we’ve made to the GFS, including higher resolution, improved physics, and better access to new data. With the help of scientists at NOAA Research, we’re making improvements to all our models, and upgrading supercomputers to improve our ability to translate data into actionable information, and to produce more timely, accurate and reliable forecasts.”

By the end of January, the $13 million project called the High Impact Weather Prediction Project (HIWPP), funded by Congress in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, will have improved the resolution on the global forecast model operated by NOAA Research Earth System Research Laboratory and the model operated by the U.S. Navy.

Improving global models
Scientists at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory are running a high resolution global forecast model called the FIM, or Flow following finite volume Icoschedral Model. As depicted here, the FIM uses a unique grid that allows for a more uniform representation of the Earth. Higher resolution models are helping improve severe weather prediction. (NOAA)

In addition, NOAA researchers have written and installed programs to enable these three global models to work together effectively, which provides greater accuracy and confidence in forecasts. The third improvement is a plan to actively involve the broader weather forecasting community, including other public, academic and private sector scientists, in the evaluation of how these models work together to refine and improve forecasts.

“We are always looking for ways to improve the reliability and accuracy of our forecasts and models,” said John Cortinas, director of NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality, who is overseeing HIWPP, which involves researchers from NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAA’s National Weather Service, cooperative institutes, other government and academic partners.

“The goal of the project is to develop the next generation of weather forecast models that will eventually extend our ability to skillfully forecast high-impact weather out to several weeks and beyond,” Cortinas said. “By extending lead time for forecasts on storms like the one we’ve just experienced, cities and towns can better plan for these events, potentially saving lives and helping protect valuable land, homes and businesses. Businesses and industry can better plan everything from shipping to safe routing of air traffic to energy consumption. For ordinary citizens, it will be easier to plan an event or a trip.”

Over the last decades, weather forecasts have improved steadily so that we now have accurate forecasts out to five days, with reasonable accuracy to seven days. “We’ve gained about a day a decade in accuracy,” said Timothy Schneider, a research meteorologist at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, who is working to improve global forecast models. “Gaining a day of accuracy involves a combination of improving the science, adding computer power and increasing the necessary observations. With this project, we’re trying to accelerate this progress to make quicker gains.”

Global weather data key to improved local forecasts

“We know we can get better weather forecasts by improving the resolution of global forecast models so they depict weather in finer and finer detail,” explained Schneider. The resolution of NOAA’s two global forecast models has improved from grids that are 24 kilometers, to ones that are about 13 kilometers.  “The finer you chop up the picture, the more you can see of what is happening inside a particular storm. This helps us make better forecasts.”

 “If we’re going to predict weather out beyond seven and 10 days, we need even better global weather forecast models that show us what’s occurring on the other side of the Earth,” added Schneider. “Weather patterns on one side of the globe travel around the Earth and evolve. Storms born in the western Pacific follow air patterns that can create major winter storms on the West Coast, and weather patterns off the coast of Africa can spawn hurricanes in the U.S.”

Source: NOAA

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NCDC Releases 2014 U.S. Climate Report

The 2014 annual average contiguous U.S. temperature was 52.6°F, 0.5°F above the 20th century average. This ranked as the 34th warmest year in the 1895–2014 record. Very warm conditions dominated the West, while the Midwest and Mississippi Valley were cool.

The average contiguous U.S. precipitation was 30.76 inches, 0.82 inch above average, and ranked as the 40th wettest year in the 120-year period of record. The northern United States was wet, and the Southern Plains were dry; the national drought footprint shrank about 2 percent. 

In 2014, there were eight weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These eight events resulted in the deaths of 53 people. The events include: the western U.S. drought, the Michigan and Northeast flooding event, five severe storm events, and one winter storm event. 

This summary from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, business, academia, and the public to support informed decision making.

Source: NOAA

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NOAA joins with Princeton and other institutions in six-year study to help public better understand Southern Ocean

NOAA is one of 10 institutions working together on the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling program, or SOCCOM, a six-year, $21 million initiative to improve our understanding of the importance and health of the Southern Ocean encircling Antarctica. (Image by Oscar Schofield, Rutgers University)

The Southern Ocean that encircles Antarctica lends a considerable hand in keeping Earth's temperature hospitable by soaking up half of the human-made carbon in the atmosphere and a majority of the planet's excess heat. Yet, the inner workings — and global importance — of this ocean that accounts for 30 percent of the world's ocean area remains relatively unknown to scientists, as observations remain hindered by dangerous seas.

NOAA is one of 10 institutions working together on the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling program, or SOCCOM, a six-year, $21 million initiative to improve our understanding of the importance and health of the Southern Ocean encircling Antarctica. (Image by Oscar Schofield, Rutgers University)

Princeton University, NOAA and eight other partner institutions now seek to make the Southern Ocean better known scientifically and publicly through a $21 million program that will create a biogeochemical and physical portrait of the ocean using hundreds of robotic floats deployed around Antarctica and an expanded computational capacity. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling program, or SOCCOM, is a six-year initiative headquartered at Princeton and funded by the National Science Foundation’s Division of Polar Programs, with additional support from the NOAA and NASA. The U.S. Argo program, led by CPO's Steven Piotrowicz, will play a major role in the project. 

"The scarcity of observations in the Southern Ocean and inadequacy of earlier models, combined with its importance to the Earth's carbon and climate systems, means there is tremendous potential for groundbreaking research in this region," Sarmiento said.
Central to the program are roughly 200 floats outfitted with biogeochemical sensors that will provide almost continuous information related to the ocean's carbon, nutrient (nitrate, in particular) and oxygen content, both at and deep beneath the surface. The floats are augmented biogeochemical versions of the nearly 4,000 Argo floats deployed worldwide to measure ocean salinity and temperature. SOCCOM marks the first large-scale deployment of these biogeochemical floats.

"These floats are revolutionary and this major new observational initiative will give us unprecedented year-round coverage of biogeochemistry in the Southern Ocean," Sarmiento said.

The Southern Ocean research will involve using Argo type floats equipped with new sensors that measure pH, nitrates in addition to temperature and salinity. (NOAA)

The floats will increase the monthly data currently coming out of the Southern Ocean by 10 to 30 times, Sarmiento said. That data will be used to improve recently developed high-resolution earth-system models, which will allow for a better understanding of the Southern Ocean and for better projections of Earth’s climate and biogeochemical trajectory. In keeping with SOCCOM's knowledge sharing, or "broader impacts," component, all the information collected will be freely available to the public, researchers and industry.

SOCCOM will provide direct observations to further understand the importance of the Southern Ocean as suggested by models and ocean studies. Aside from carbon and heat uptake, models have indicated that the Southern Ocean delivers nutrients to lower-latitude surface waters that are critical to ocean ecosystems around the world. In addition, the impacts of ocean acidification as levels of carbon dioxide in atmosphere increase are projected to be most severe in the Southern Ocean.

Other than administering the project, Sarmiento and other Princeton researchers will co-lead the modeling and broader impacts components, as well as coordinated data management. Researchers from NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory housed on Princeton's Forrestal Campus will carry out high-resolution earth-system simulations in support of the modeling effort, which is led by the University of Arizona and includes collaborators from the University of Miami.

The floats will be constructed at the University of Washington with sensors from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; NOAA’s Climate Program Office will provide half of the basic Argo floats. Float deployment, observation analysis and data assimilation will be led by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California-San Diego. Climate Central, a non-profit science and journalism organization based in Princeton, will oversee the broader-impacts component. Researchers from Oregon State University and NOAA will develop the floats’ carbon algorithms.

“The SOCCOM effort is the first systematic expansion of the US Argo program into biogeochemistry. The unique subsurface ocean observations from SOCCOM will contribute towards our efforts to observe the global oceans,” said David Legler, director of NOAA’s Climate Observations Division.

In addition, NASA will support a complementary project involving researchers at the University of Maine and Rutgers University that will equip the floats with bio-optical sensors intended to gather data about biological processes in the water column.

This web story was written by Morgan Kelly, science writer for Princeton University, and includes an additional quote from NOAA's David Legler

Source: NOAA

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Putting the Blizzard of 2015 into Historical Context

                    January-25-28-2015-Snowfall-Totals-Map Credit: NOAA

The recent “Blizzard of 2015” shutdown several major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and left several locations across Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New York covered in over two feet of snow. But, how did this snowstorm compare to the region’s most historic storms? To place this storm and its societal impacts into historical context, NCDC used the Regional Snowfall Index or RSI to rank it on a scale from 1 to 5—similar to the Fujita scale for tornadoes or the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes. These ranks are based on the snowfall amount within the region’s borders, the spatial extent of the storm, and the relationship of these elements to the area’s population.

The RSI value for January 25­–28, 2015, snowstorm is 6.16, which makes it a Category 3 or major event for the Northeast. With that RSI value, the snowstorm ranks 26th out of the 423 northeastern snowstorms NCDC has analyzed since 1900. The area of snowfall and population affected by 20 inches of snow or more were the primary drivers for this storm’s raw RSI score. Almost 5 million people experienced over 20 inches of snow and 15 million experienced over 10 inches of new snow. While these are significant impacts, the footprint of the heavy snow was relatively small compared to RSI Category 5 storms. These rare events typically have over 45 million people experiencing over 10 inches of snow. Nonetheless, this storm is well within the top 10% of storms analyzed for the Northeast.

The late February snowstorm of 1969 remains the strongest storm to hit the Northeast, with an RSI value of 34.03 making it a Category 5 or extreme event. The March 1993 “Storm of the Century” remains the second strongest snowstorm to hit the Northeast, with an RSI value of 22.12 also making it a Category 5 event.

Learn more about the Regional Snowfall Index and use our interactive mapping tool to see RSI rankings for almost 600 snowstorms since 1900.

Source: NOAA

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Silicon carbide increases energy efficiency

Illustration of the fill port of a silicon single crystal bar which has been prepared by the zone melting process. (Photo: TRUMPF Hüttinger)
To increase the efficiency of the power supply in industrial processes, thereby saving energy and CO2, the aim of the new joint "MMPSiC": Researchers at the Light Technology Institute (LTI) at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) examine together with the industrial partners TRUMPF Hüttinger and IXYS Semiconductor the use of power semiconductor switches of silicon carbide. The Federal Research Ministry is supporting the project with around 800,000 euros.

Of the semiconductor manufacturing over the coating of displays to processes in the automotive industry: Many industrial processes consume large amounts of electrical energy. Among these are technologies that will play an important role in the energy transition, as the zone melting method (float zone method) for producing high purity crystalline materials: The substance is electrically fused in a narrow zone; the melting zone is gradually continued. Behind the melting zone crystallized substance purer than before. The zone melting method provides, among other high-purity silicon single crystals for the manufacture of solar cells.

Power supply of zone melting systems based on tube technology systems are used to now having an electrical efficiency of up to 65 percent. By switching to power semiconductor silicon carbide, the efficiency of the process power supply could be increased to over 80 percent. This would save large amounts of electrical energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, for a single float-zone scale plant would result consisting of 20 x 150 kW-process power supplies, with an annual duration of 4800 hours, a savings of more than 200,000 kWh of electrical energy and 109 tonnes of CO2 (Umweltbundesamt, as of July 2013).

The feasibility of such a process power supplies, researchers at the Light Technology Institute (LTI) of KIT together with the partners TRUMPF Hüttinger GmbH + Co. KG (Freiburg) and IXYS Semiconductor GmbH (Lampertheim) in the joint project "Modular medium frequency process power supply with silicon carbide semiconductor power switches" (MMPSiC) , As the semiconductor material Silicon Carbide offers several advantages: Thanks to the larger electronic band gap allows much higher operating temperatures than conventional semiconductors. Power electronics with silicon carbide is characterized by higher energy efficiency and compactness.

"When the power of energy-intensive industrial applications such as the zone melting method, it is necessary to switch at high frequencies," says the project director, Dr. Rainer Kling from LTI of KIT. "Silicon carbide is not yet tested for these high frequencies; so that we are breaking new ground. "In addition to examining the long-term stability include the control and the layout of the circuit to the tasks of the KIT researchers in the joint project MMPSiC.

The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) supports MMPSiC project on the basis of the program "Information and Communication Technology 2020" (ICT 2020) as part of the funding program "Power electronics to increase energy efficiency" (LES 2) with around 800,000 euros. Of which receives the LTI KIT around 439,000 euros. Overall, the project volume is 1.3 million euros. The joint project started in 2014 and is planned for three years.

Source: KIT

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Satellites for peat sake - Peatlands play vital role in curbing climate change

                         Peatlands play vital role in curbing climate change Credit: JHU
Peatlands make up just 3% of land but capture twice as much carbon as all forests combined.

They are also an important source of drinking water and provide a home to many rare and threatened animals and plants.

Ecosystems work best when left intact but these wetland areas are being threatened by human exploitation, resulting in vast carbon emissions, frequent and uncontrollable fires and loss of valuable landscapes.

                                            Handheld devices for collecting ground data

Rezatec in Oxfordshire, UK, supported by ESA’s Integrated Applications Promotions programme, in the Peat spotter project will give landowners an easier and cheaper way of calculating the potential economic value of conserving or restoring their peatlands and monitoring the results of their investment.

“Peat spotter helps landowners to manage their peat resource more sustainably through mapping the area, measuring the carbon it contains and monitoring how its integrity is changing over time,” says Patrick Newton, CEO of Rezatec.

To do this, satellite imagery is used to locate and create initial mappings of peatlands. This information is enriched with ground data collected by field agents using handheld devices.

An app prompts users in the field for measurements, satnav adds location information, and the data are then sent directly to a centralised office via satcom for analysis.

The new approach is a cost-effective way of measuring peat extent and how intact it is over wide and potentially remote areas that are otherwise expensive to measure or inaccessible from the ground.

Rezatec expects water companies, conservation groups and those using typically state-owned land for uses such as plantations to sign up for this service.

Peatlands are an important source of drinking water. Water companies using these resources can significantly reduce the water treatment necessary to meet drinking water standards if they are able to identify areas of degraded peatland and make restoration efforts at source.

Water derived from degraded peatlands can contain raised levels of dissolved organic carbon causing significant discolouration.

On land that is typically used for plantations, peat assets are included in the measurement of the greenhouse gas balance, but only through a rough calculation.

                                                     Deforestation damages peatlands

Making it cheaper and easier to locate and monitor peatlands will make it simpler to calculate the economic value of conserving and restoring these areas and, in turn, this can be positive for society, the economy and the environment.

Within the mobile device apps Rezatec includes: guides to help identify flora and fauna, videocam monitoring of borders, photo uploading, alerts when levels are breached, and fire mapping.

“This innovative use of satellite data has far-reaching benefits for the space industry and the wider UK economy,” notes Alan Brunstrom, head of the Service Business Office in ESA’s Integrated Applications Promotion programme.

“Perhaps more importantly, it demonstrates how the scientific analysis of ‘big data’ can benefit the environment and, in this particular scenario, provide valuable information to allow sustainable peatland management practices on a global scale.”

Source: JHU

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Use Social Media in Study of E-Cigarettes

Five-year grant from the National Institutes of Health will support project that is as much about data-gathering methods as it is about public health. Credit: UA

When Facebook announced in September that it would use all that personal data it collects to roll out a new ad platform to rival Google, privacy advocates groaned and marketers grinned.

But what if all that intelligence could be used to crack open one of today’s most pressing — yet least understood — public health issues?

That’s precisely the vision of the University of Arizona’s Daniel Zeng, MIS professor at the Eller College of Management, and Scott Leischow, adjunct faculty in the UA College of Medicine and professor of health services research at Arizona’s Mayo Clinic.

Fusing cutting-edge informatics and public health, their plan to scrape social media to create the world’s best data on e-cigarette usage and marketing recently won a five-year, $2.7 million grant from the National Institutes of Health.

The project will tackle four distinct goals. It will:

Create a massive, real-time and continuously growing data set of what consumers and marketers say about e-cigarettes on sites such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as social media forums focused on e-cigarettes and "vaping."

Mine that content for insights into why people use e-cigarettes, how they believe they affect their health and whether they help them quit smoking.

Document the marketing landscape — all the ways brands and vendors use these channels to promote their products and how consumers respond.

Integrate all of that information in the world’s first one-stop resource for wide-ranging data on e-cigarettes as revealed through social media as a tool for other researchers, health care professionals and more.

While e-cigarettes are relatively new in the U.S. — they were introduced in 2007 — sales are doubling annually and were expected to reach $1 billion last year. Even so, any time public dollars fund research, two questions naturally arise: Why study this? And why study it this way?

"There’s so much we don’t know about e-cigarettes," Leischow says. "The scientific community has found mixed data on whether they’re helpful for smoking cessation. We have questions about how different flavorings impact use, particularly among minors. And many health professionals worry that e-cigarettes may ultimately lead to more young people taking up smoking. All of these blind spots around a product that is still totally unregulated make this a top-priority area for the FDA."

As for why it makes sense to study e-cigarettes in this way, Zeng’s MIS expertise holds the key.  By mining social media in real time, as Zeng and Leischow have proposed, there are a number of strategic advantages:

Data comes from people interacting naturally in their day-to-day lives, thus removing “presentation bias” problems intrinsic in surveys.

The data collection is automated, which means sample size is not constrained by how much money or how many eyeball hours researchers can muster.

The lack of constraint also makes anecdotal information scientifically relevant: One personal story is just that, but 10,000 or 100,000 personal stories over time equal robust statistical data.

Because content is processed by algorithms, not people, data is available in near real time, not months or even years after countless hours of labor-intensive review.

The world of e-cigarettes, like that of any niche product or interest, has its own specialized vocabulary of acronyms and slang, so the research team will first need to construct a base lexical dataset for “training” the computers that will collect and process content.

It’s also one thing to scrape words but a much more complex challenge to automate the process of extracting meaning, so that a computer can spot when someone cites a reason for using e-cigarettes or mentions how the products affect his or her health (both of which first require a computer to detect who is or isn’t a user) or correctly catalog the marketing strategy used in an advertisement.

"We basically will be creating a suite of novel technologies for this study using both established building blocks of informatics and methods that have yet to be developed," Zeng says, "including analysis and visualization tools that were developed here at the U of A. 
Beyond that, we’re relying on proven tools for pattern mining, group behavior prediction, social network analysis and a lot more, but in ways that have never been combined for this level of research and in this topic area."

For Leischow, the knowledge those tools will produce is invaluable.

"There are all kinds of messages out there, from how effective e-cigarettes can be to help smokers quit tobacco to how they’re totally harmless or taste like candy," he says. "It may be that e-cigarettes prove beneficial to public health, or they may be shown to do more harm than good. In either case, it often takes many years for experts to fully recognize how products are being used and how they impact well-being, and even longer for regulation to catch up.

"This time, it’s going to be different. This time, we’re getting out ahead."

Source: UA

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