Putting the Blizzard of 2015 into Historical Context

                    January-25-28-2015-Snowfall-Totals-Map Credit: NOAA

The recent “Blizzard of 2015” shutdown several major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and left several locations across Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New York covered in over two feet of snow. But, how did this snowstorm compare to the region’s most historic storms? To place this storm and its societal impacts into historical context, NCDC used the Regional Snowfall Index or RSI to rank it on a scale from 1 to 5—similar to the Fujita scale for tornadoes or the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes. These ranks are based on the snowfall amount within the region’s borders, the spatial extent of the storm, and the relationship of these elements to the area’s population.

The RSI value for January 25­–28, 2015, snowstorm is 6.16, which makes it a Category 3 or major event for the Northeast. With that RSI value, the snowstorm ranks 26th out of the 423 northeastern snowstorms NCDC has analyzed since 1900. The area of snowfall and population affected by 20 inches of snow or more were the primary drivers for this storm’s raw RSI score. Almost 5 million people experienced over 20 inches of snow and 15 million experienced over 10 inches of new snow. While these are significant impacts, the footprint of the heavy snow was relatively small compared to RSI Category 5 storms. These rare events typically have over 45 million people experiencing over 10 inches of snow. Nonetheless, this storm is well within the top 10% of storms analyzed for the Northeast.

The late February snowstorm of 1969 remains the strongest storm to hit the Northeast, with an RSI value of 34.03 making it a Category 5 or extreme event. The March 1993 “Storm of the Century” remains the second strongest snowstorm to hit the Northeast, with an RSI value of 22.12 also making it a Category 5 event.

Learn more about the Regional Snowfall Index and use our interactive mapping tool to see RSI rankings for almost 600 snowstorms since 1900.

Source: NOAA

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Trade winds ventilate the tropical oceans: Explanation for increasing oxygen deficiency

Scheme of the tropical Pacific: Strong growth of plankton (1) leads to a high oxygen consumption and extended oxygen minimum zones (2). Ocean currents (3) at a few hundred meters depth provide an influx of oxygenated water from the subtropics (4). Fluctuations of the trade winds (5) influence the strength of these currents. Credit: Graphics: Claus Böning, Markus Scheinert, GEOMAR

Long-term observations indicate that the oxygen minimum zones in the tropical oceans have expanded in recent decades. The reason is still unknown. Now scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and the Collaborative Research Centre 754 "Climate -- Biogeochemical Interactions in the Tropical Ocean" have found an explanation with the help of model simulations: a natural fluctuation of the trade winds. The study has been published in the international journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The changes can be measured, but their reasons were unknown. For several decades, scientists have carefully observed that the oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) in the tropical oceans are expanding. These zones are a paradise for some specially adapted microorganisms, but for all larger marine organisms such as fish and marine mammals they are uninhabitable. Thus, their expansion has already narrowed down the habitat of some fish species.

Marine scientists from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and the Kiel Collaborative Research Centre (Sonderforschungsbereich, SFB) 754 "Climate -- Biogeochemical Interactions in the Tropical Ocean" now have found a possible reason for these changes by using a model simulation of climate and biological processes. As their study shows, the trade winds north and south of the Equator play a crucial role in the supply of oxygen to tropical sea water. "So fluctuations in the trade winds could also be responsible for the observed enlargement of the oxygen minimum zones in recent years," explains Dr. Olaf Duteil, lead author of the study, which has now been published in the international journal Geophysical Research Letters.

OMZs exist in different intensities at the eastern edges of all tropical oceans. Because nutrient-rich water from the depths reaches the surface in these areas plankton thrives particularly well. Therefore large amounts of plankton organisms die there, too. After their death they sink down to the ocean floor. On the way down bacteria start to decompose the biomass. In doing so they consume the oxygen. The largest of these OMZs stretches from the coasts of Chile and Peru far into the Pacific ocean.

At the same time currents at a few hundred meters depth transport oxygen-rich water from the subtropics towards the tropics, where the oxygen minimum zones lie. "One can think of the tropical Pacific Ocean as a bathtub. When I open the tap, I fill the bathtub with water or 'oxygen', respectively. When the siphon is open, too, we lose oxygen at the same time. We then have an instable equilibrium between input and output," explains Dr. Duteil, "If I turn off the tap a little, the tub empties slowly."

As the researchers were able to determine in a computer simulation of the oxygen balance now, the strength of the currents and thus the oxygen flow to the tropics is directly related to the strength of the trade winds. "It is well known that they vary on a decadal time scale," says co-author Prof. Dr. Claus Böning from GEOMAR, "but these variations haven never been investigated in relation to the oxygen budget of tropical oceans. "

Since the trade winds have been in a weak phase since the mid-1970s, this could be the explanation for the observed enlargement of the oxygen minimum zones. "The oxygen bathtub of the tropical oceans is emptying," says Dr. Duteil. Once the trade winds come back into a stronger phase, the process will be reversed.

This does not mean that external processes such as the general global warming have no influence on the oxygen concentrations in the tropical oceans. "There is evidence that global change affects the major wind systems of the Earth. That would have a direct impact on the oxygen transport in the subtropical and tropical ocean," explains Prof. Andreas Oschlies, co-author and speaker of the SFB 754. "But it is important that according to this study the trade winds in any case as must be considered as a factor for long-term development of tropical oxygen minimum zones," Oschlies adds.

Source: Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR)

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Intensity of hurricanes: New study helps improve predictions of storm intensity

Rough sea with big waves (stock image). "The air-water interface -- whether it had significant waves or significant spray -- is a big factor in storm intensity," said Alex Soloviev, Ph.D., a professor at Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center. "Hurricanes gain heat energy through the interface and they lose mechanical energy at the interface." Credit: © mimadeo / Fotolia

They are something we take very seriously in Florida -- hurricanes. The names roll off the tongue like a list of villains -- Andrew, Charlie, Frances and Wilma.

In the past 25 years or so, experts have gradually been improving prediction of the course a storm may take. This is thanks to tremendous advancements in computer and satellite technology. While we still have the "cone of uncertainty" we've become familiar with watching television weather reports, today's models are more accurate than they used to be.

The one area, however, where there is still much more to be researched and learned is in predicting just how intense a storm may be. While hurricane hunter aircraft can help determine wind speed, velocity, water temperature and other data, the fact is we often don't know why or how a storm gets stronger or weaker. There has been virtually no progress in hurricane intensity forecasting during the last quarter century.

But, thanks to new research being conducted, all that's about to change.

"The air-water interface -- whether it had significant waves or significant spray -- is a big factor in storm intensity," said Alex Soloviev, Ph.D., a professor at Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center. "Hurricanes gain heat energy through the interface and they lose mechanical energy at the interface."

Soloviev is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (UM RSMAS) and a Fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS.) He and his fellow researchers used a computational fluid dynamics model to simulate microstructure of the air-sea interface under hurricane force winds. In order to verify these computer-generated results, the group conducted experiments at the UM's Rosenstiel School Air-Sea Interaction Salt Water Tank (ASIST) where they simulated wind speed and ocean surface conditions found during hurricanes.

The study "The Air-Sea Interface and Surface Stress Under Tropical Cyclones" was published in the June 16, 2014 issue of the journal Nature Scientific Reports. Soloviev was the lead author of this study, which was conducted by a multi-institutional team including Roger Lukas (University of Hawaii), Mark Donelan and Brian Haus (UM RSMAS), and Isaac Ginis (University of Rhode Island.)

The researchers were surprised at what they found. Under hurricane force wind, the air-water interface was producing projectiles fragmenting into sub millimeter scale water droplets. This process is known from some engineering applications, including rocket science, as the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability. This new study then looked at how changes in microphysics of the air-sea interface can make a storm grow or weaken in intensity. With wind speed exceeding a Category 1 threshold, the ocean surface unexpectedly became more "slippery."

When the wind exceeded Category 3 hurricane force, the "slippery" effect started gradually disappearing and was completely gone at Category 5. The conclusion was that some hurricanes might rapidly intensify to Category 3 and then stay in a "comfortable" zone around Category 3 status. This finding is consistent with the global best-track tropical cyclone statistics on maximum intensity for 1982-2009. So far, these early results showed that physical conditions where the air and the ocean interact must be a vital part of any successful hurricane forecasting model and would help explain, and predict, how a storm might intensify as it moves through across the water based on the physical stress at the ocean's surface.

This work has been supported by the NOPP project "Advanced coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling for improving tropical cyclone prediction models" (PIs: Isaac Ginis, URI and Shuyi Chen, UM) and by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) Consortium for Advanced Research on the Transport of Hydrocarbons in the Environment -- CARTHE (PI: Tamay Özgökmen, UM). GoMRI is a 10-year, $500 million independent research program established by an agreement between BP and the Gulf of Mexico Alliance.

The plan is for the team to continue their research and experiments at UM's Alfred C. 

Glassell, Jr. SUSTAIN facility, which has recently been designed by one of the Nature article co-authors, Brian Haus (UM). It's the unique lab facility where they can recreate the conditions found in a Category 5 storm.

"We've got more work to do, but this is a great first step," Soloviev said. "But remember, no matter how good we get in predicting a storm's intensity, people in the path need to prepare accordingly regardless of what Category it is -- that's most important."

Source: Nova Southeastern University

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NASA HS3 instrument views two dimensions of clouds

The second Cloud Physics Lidar built to fly on NASA's unmanned Global Hawk aircraft. In this summer's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel or HS3 mission, the CPL is studying the changing profile of the atmosphere in detail to learn more about how hurricanes form and strengthen. Credit: NASA

Looking out the window of a commercial plane during takeoff is like taking the nickel tour of the profile of the atmosphere. As the plane ascends, what may start as a gloomy day on the ground, can turn into rain streaking across the window as you pass through the white-gray cloud, and then sunny skies above once the plane reaches cruising altitude.

NASA's Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) instrument, flying aboard an unmanned Global Hawk aircraft in this summer's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel, or HS3, mission, is studying the changing profile of the atmosphere in detail to learn more about how hurricanes form and strengthen.

"CPL profiles the atmosphere to get a two-dimensional picture of cloud and aerosols, from the top down," said Matt McGill of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who led the instrument team that designed and built the CPL. Its data, presented as if it were a curtain hanging from the sky, shows what's in the atmosphere's different layers.

From about 60,000 feet on the Global Hawk, twice the altitude of a commercial plane, 94 percent of the atmosphere lies below the instrument. The lidar works by sending rapid pulses of light that, like a radar beam, bounce and scatter off any particles they encounter, such as cloud droplets or dust particles. Some of the scattered light returns to the instrument where it records how long it took for the photons to leave and return -- giving the altitude of the particles.

CPL sends out 5,000 pulses of light per second in three different wavelengths, allowing the science team to discriminate between different types of particles, McGill said. "Is it a cloud made of water? Is it a cloud made of ice or mixed [water and ice]? And we can say something about what type of airborne particle we are seeing. Is it dust or smoke or pollution?"
For the scientists studying hurricanes, those distinctions are important. One of the major areas of study is how Saharan dust off of Africa travels across the Atlantic and affects hurricane formation and intensification. CPL data have been used to verify model projections of Saharan dust in the tropics. The CPL data showed dust layers had a vertical distribution different than models predicted. Instead dust layers occupied narrower altitude ranges. The finding led to an improvement in the dust models, which then feed into hurricane models.

Situated in the nose of the Global Hawk flying over the storm environment, CPL also has a role in on-the-fly mission planning. While in flight, the CPL sends its data back to the team on the ground. "The mission scientists involved in the flight planning can sit there and watch the data with us in real time and say, 'Oh, we're not getting what we want.' Then they can go work with the flight planners and pilots to reroute the aircraft into different areas," said McGill. "They love that."

The airborne science community takes full advantage of the quick look capability, as well as the 24-hour turn around for the final data products. CPL is one of the most flown instruments in NASA's Earth science fleet. "It's a workhorse for the field campaigns," said McGill.

The original CPL was built in 1999 and took its first flight on the ER-2 high altitude research aircraft in 2000. Over the years CPL has been used as a satellite simulator for ground validation efforts, a cloud spotter for other instruments needing a clear view of the ground, as well as the main data collector for scientists studying atmospheric composition and Earth's energy budget where thin clouds and aerosols are major players. The lidar was also part of the proof of concept flights for the A-Train, a series of satellites flying in the same orbit making near-simultaneous measurements of the Earth system using many different instruments. That proof of concept airborne campaign showed scientists the power of combining multiple Earth observing data sets.

In 2007, when talk began of using Global Hawks for Earth science, CPL was among the first sensors considered; its size is perfect for the instrument compartment. Worries about the untested Global Hawk led to a second nearly identical instrument being built for use on the unmanned aircraft. It flew on NASA's maiden Global Hawk Pacific campaign in 2009. Since then, the Global Hawk CPL has flown in two multi-year campaigns, alternating between the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) and HS3.

Compact and fully autonomous, the CPL lidar design pioneered photon-counting technology that has led to the development of two instruments that will fly in space, the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS), which launches to the International Space Station this December, and the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), which will fly on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) scheduled to launch in 2017.

The solid design of the instrument has borne up surprisingly well over the years, said McGill, who uses CPL as a learning tool for interns and young scientists getting their hands dirty in the field. Together, the twin CPL instruments have flown 26 missions. HS3 will mark the 27th overall and the seventh for the Global Hawk CPL.

"It's still going strong," McGill said.

The HS3 mission is funded by NASA Headquarters and overseen by NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder Program at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, and is one of five large field campaigns operating under the Earth Venture program. The HS3 mission also involves collaborations with partners including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Laboratory, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division and Earth System Research Laboratory, Northrop Grumman Space Technology, National Center for Atmospheric Research, State University of New York at Albany, University of Maryland -- Baltimore County, University of Wisconsin and University of Utah. The HS3 mission is managed by the Earth Science Project Office at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, California. The aircraft are maintained and based at NASA's Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California.

Source: NASA

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Global warming skeptics unmoved by extreme weather

What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real? Surely, many scientists believe, enough droughts, floods and heat waves will begin to change minds. Credit: © lightmemorystock / Fotolia

What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real? Surely, many scientists believe, enough droughts, floods and heat waves will begin to change minds.

But a new study led by a Michigan State University scholar throws cold water on that theory.
Only 35 percent of U.S. citizens believe global warming was the main cause of the abnormally high temperatures during the winter of 2012, Aaron M. McCright and colleagues report in a paper published online today in the journal Nature Climate Change.

"Many people already had their minds made up about global warming and this extreme weather was not going to change that," said McCright, associate professor in MSU's Lyman Briggs College and Department of Sociology.

Winter 2012 was the fourth warmest winter in the United States dating back to at least 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Some 80 percent of U.S. citizens reported winter temperatures in their local area were warmer than usual.

The researchers analyzed March 2012 Gallup Poll data of more than 1,000 people and examined how individuals' responses related to actual temperatures in their home states. Perceptions of warmer winter temperatures seemed to track with observed temperatures.

"Those results are promising because we do hope that people accurately perceive the reality that's around them so they can adapt accordingly to the weather," McCright said.

But when it came to attributing the abnormally warm weather to global warming, respondents largely held fast to their existing beliefs and were not influenced by actual temperatures.

As this study and McCright's past research shows, political party identification plays a significant role in determining global warming beliefs. People who identify as Republican tend to doubt the existence of global warming, while Democrats generally believe in it.

The abnormally warm winter was just one in an ongoing series of severe weather events -- including the 2010 Russian heat wave, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the 2013 typhoon in the Philippines -- that many believed would help start convincing global warming skeptics.

"There's been a lot of talk among climate scientists, politicians and journalists that warmer winters like this would change people's minds," McCright said. "That the more people are exposed to climate change, the more they'll be convinced. This study suggests this is not the case."

Source: Michigan State University

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Improving forecasts for rain-on-snow flooding

Flooding in January 2009 closed a section of Interstate 5 south of Seattle.Washington State Dept. of Transportation Credit: Image courtesy of University of Washington

Many of the worst West Coast winter floods pack a double punch. Heavy rains and melting snow wash down the mountains together to breach riverbanks, wash out roads and flood buildings.

These events are unpredictable and difficult to forecast. Yet they will become more common as the planet warms and more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.

University of Washington mountain hydrology experts are using the physics behind these events to better predict the risks.

"One of the main misconceptions is that either the rain falls and washes the snow away, or that heat from the rain is melting the snow," said Nicholas Wayand, a UW doctoral student in civil and environmental engineering. He will present his research Dec. 18 at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Most of the largest floods on record in the western U.S. are associated with rain falling on snow. But it's not that the rain is melting or washing away the snow.

Instead, it's the warm, humid air surrounding the drops that is most to blame for the melting, Wayand said. Moisture in the air condenses on the cold snow just like water droplets form on a cold drink can. The energy released when the humid air condenses is absorbed by the snow. The other main reason is that rainstorms bring warmer air, and this air blows across the snow to melt its surface. His work support previous research showing that these processes provide 60 to 90 percent of the energy for melting.

Places that experience rain-on-snow flooding are cities on rivers that begin in the mountains, such as Sacramento, California, and Centralia, Washington. In the 1997 New Year's Day flood in Northern California, melting snow exacerbated flooding, which broke levees and caused millions of dollars in damage. The biggest recent rain-on-snow event in Washington was the 2009 flood in the Snoqualmie basin. And the Calgary flood in summer of 2013 included snow from the Canadian Rockies that caused rivers to overflow their banks.
The UW researchers developed a model by recreating the 10 worst rain-on-snow flooding events between 1980 and 2008 in three regions: the Snoqualmie basin in Washington state, the upper San Joaquin basin in central California and the East North Fork of the Feather River basin in southern California.

Their results allow them to gauge the risks for any basin and any incoming storm. The three factors that matter most, they found, are the shape of the basin, the elevation of the rain-to-snow transition before and during the storm, and the amount of tree cover. Basins most vulnerable to snowmelt are treeless basins with a lot of area within the rain-snow transition zone, where the precipitation can fall as snow and then rain.

Trees reduce the risk of flooding because they slow the storm's winds.

"If you've ever been in a forest on a windy day, it's a lot calmer," Wayand said. That slows the energy transferred from condensation and from contact with warm air to the snowpack.
Simulations also show that meltwater accounted for up to about a quarter of the total flooding. That supports earlier research showing that snow is not the main contributor to rain-on-snow floods, but cannot be neglected since it adds water to an already heavy winter rainstorm.

The complexity of mountain weather also plays a role.

"The increase in precipitation with elevation is much greater than usual for some of these storms," said Jessica Lundquist, a UW associate professor of civil and environmental engineering. "Higher flows can result from heavier rainfall rates at higher elevations, rather than from snowmelt."

In related work, Lundquist's group has developed a tennis-ball snow sensor and is measuring growth and melt of the snowpack in the foothills east of Seattle. The scientists aim to better understand how changes in climate and forestry practices might affect municipal water supplies and flood risks.

Wayand and another student in the group have developed a high school curriculum for Seattle teachers to explain rain-on-snow events and the physics behind why they occur. They hope to begin teaching the curriculum sometime next year.

The other collaborator on the work being presented in San Francisco is Martyn Clark at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.

Source: University of Washington

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Deepwater Horizon spill: Much of the oil at bottom of the sea

Controlled burning of surface oil slicks during the Deepwater Horizon event.
Credit: David Valentine

Due to the environmental disaster's unprecedented scope, assessing the damage caused by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been a challenge. One unsolved puzzle is the location of 2 million barrels of submerged oil thought to be trapped in the deep ocean.

UC Santa Barbara's David Valentine and colleagues from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) and UC Irvine have been able to describe the path the oil followed to create a footprint on the deep ocean floor. The findings appear today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

For this study, the scientists used data from the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The United States government estimates the Macondo well's total discharge -- from the spill in April 2010 until the well was capped that July -- to be 5 million barrels.

By analyzing data from more than 3,000 samples collected at 534 locations over 12 expeditions, they identified a 1,250-square-mile patch of the deep sea floor upon which 2 to 16 percent of the discharged oil was deposited. The fallout of oil to the sea floor created thin deposits most intensive to the southwest of the Macondo well. The oil was most concentrated within the top half inch of the sea floor and was patchy even at the scale of a few feet.

The investigation focused primarily on hopane, a nonreactive hydrocarbon that served as a proxy for the discharged oil. Researchers analyzed the spatial distribution of hopane in the northern Gulf of Mexico and found it was most concentrated in a thin layer at the sea floor within 25 miles of the ruptured well, clearly implicating Deepwater Horizon as the source.

"Based on the evidence, our findings suggest that these deposits come from Macondo oil that was first suspended in the deep ocean and then settled to the sea floor without ever reaching the ocean surface," said Valentine, a professor of earth science and biology at UCSB. "The pattern is like a shadow of the tiny oil droplets that were initially trapped at ocean depths around 3,500 feet and pushed around by the deep currents. Some combination of chemistry, biology and physics ultimately caused those droplets to rain down another 1,000 feet to rest on the sea floor."

Valentine and his colleagues were able to identify hotspots of oil fallout in close proximity to damaged deep-sea corals. According to the researchers, this data supports the previously disputed finding that these corals were damaged by the Deepwater Horizon spill.

"The evidence is becoming clear that oily particles were raining down around these deep sea corals, which provides a compelling explanation for the injury they suffered," said Valentine. "The pattern of contamination we observe is fully consistent with the Deepwater Horizon event but not with natural seeps -- the suggested alternative."

While the study examined a specified area, the scientists argue that the observed oil represents a minimum value. They purport that oil deposition likely occurred outside the study area but so far has largely evaded detection because of its patchiness.

"This analysis provides us with, for the first time, some closure on the question 'Where did the oil go and how?' " said Don Rice, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Ocean Sciences. "It also alerts us that this knowledge remains largely provisional until we can fully account for the remaining 70 percent."

"These findings should be useful for assessing the damage caused by the Deepwater Horizon spill as well as planning future studies to further define the extent and nature of the contamination," Valentine concluded. "Our work can also help to assess the fate of reactive hydrocarbons, test models of oil's behavior in the ocean and plan for future spills."

Co-authors are G. Burch Fisher and Sarah C. Bagby, postdoctoral researchers in the Valentine Lab at UCSB; Robert K. Nelson, Christopher M. Reddy and Sean P. Sylva of WHOI; and Mary A. Woo of UC Irvine. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation.

Source:  University of California - Santa Barbara

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Hurricane-forecast satellites will keep close eyes on the tropics

A set of eight satellites -- each about the size of a microwave oven -- will launch in 2016 and provide scientists unprecedented information about the formation and evolution of hurricanes. Credit: Aaron Ridley

 A set of eight hurricane-forecast satellites being developed at the University of Michigan is expected to give deep insights into how and where storms suddenly intensify--a little-understood process that's becoming more crucial to figure out as the climate changes, U-M researchers say.

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System is scheduled to launch in fall 2016. At the American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco this week, U-M researchers released estimates of how significantly CYGNSS could improve wind speed and storm intensity forecasts.

CYGNSS--said like the swan constellation--is a $173-million NASA mission that U-M is leading with Texas-based Southwest Research Institute. Each of its eight observatories is about the size of a microwave oven. That's much smaller than a typical weather satellite, which is about the size of a van.

The artificial CYGNSS "constellation," as researchers refer to it, will orbit at tropical, hurricane-belt latitudes. Its coverage will stretch from the 38th parallel north near Delaware's latitude to its counterpart in the south just below Buenos Aires.

Because of their arrangement and number, the observatories will be able to measure the same spot on the globe much more often than the weather satellites flying today can. CYGNSS's revisit time will average between four and six hours, and at times, it can be as fast as 12 minutes.

Conventional weather satellites only cross over the same point once or twice a day. Meteorologists can use ground-based Doppler radar to help them make predictions about storms near land, but hurricanes, which form over the open ocean, present a tougher problem.

"The rapid refresh CYGNSS will offer is a key element of how we'll be able to improve hurricane forecasts," said CYGNSS lead investigator Christopher Ruf, director of the U-M Space Physics Research Lab and professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences.
"CYGNSS gets us the ability to measure things that change fast, like extreme weather. Those are the hardest systems to measure with today's satellites. And because the world is warmer and there's more energy to feed storm systems, there's more likelihood of extreme weather."
Through simulations, the researchers quantified the improvement CYGNSS could have on storm intensity predictions. They found that for a wind speed forecast that is off by 33 knots, or 38 miles per hour--the average error with current capabilities--CYGNSS could reduce that by 9 knots, or about 10 mph.

Considering that the categories of hurricane strength ratchet up, on average, every 20 mph, the accuracy boost is "a very significant number," Ruf said.

"I'd describe the feeling about it as guarded excitement," he said. "It's preliminary and it's all based on models. People will be really excited when we get up there and it works."
The numbers could also improve as scientists update weather prediction tools to better use the new kind of information that CYGNSS will provide.

For people who live in common hurricane or typhoon paths, closer wind speed predictions could translate into more accurate estimates of the storm surge at landfall, Ruf said. That's the main way these systems harm people and property.

"The whole ocean gets higher because the wind pushes the water. That's really hard to forecast now and it's an area we hope to make big improvements in," Ruf said.
Researchers expect the satellite system to give them new insights into storm processes. Hurricanes evolve slowly at first, but then they reach a tipping point, says Aaron Ridley, a professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences.

"The hurricane could be meandering across the Atlantic Ocean and then something happens." Ridley said. "It kicks up a notch and people aren't exactly sure why. A lot of scientists would like to study this rapid intensification in more detail. With a normal mission, you might not be able to see it, but with CYGNSS, you have a better chance."
The satellites will operate in a fundamentally different way than their counterparts do. Rather than transmit a signal and read what reflects back, they'll measure how GPS signals from other satellites bounce off the ocean surface. Each of the eight CYGNSS nodes will measure signals from four of the 32 Global Positioning System satellites.

They'll also be able to take measurements through heavy rain--something other weather satellites are, surprisingly, not very good at.

Source: University of Michigan

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Abundance of microplastics in the world's deep seas

Richard Thompson.
Credit: Image courtesy of University of Plymouth

The deep sea is becoming a collecting ground for plastic waste, according to research led by scientists from Plymouth University and Natural History Museum.

The new study, published today in Royal Society Open Science, reveals around four billion microscopic plastic fibres could be littering each square kilometre of deep sea sediment around the world.

Marine plastic debris is a global problem, affecting wildlife, tourism and shipping. Yet monitoring over the past decades has not seen its concentration increase at the sea surface or along shorelines, despite experts knowing that more is being created.

However, the current study indicates this may be because microplastics have sunk to the ocean floor, with the number of fibres recorded in the deep seas up to four times greater than in shallow and coastal waters.

"The puzzle for marine scientists has been to establish where plastic debris is going. Part of the answer is that much of this waste is breaking down into fibres invisible to the naked eye and sinking to the sea floor," said Dr Lucy Woodall, zoologist at the Natural History Museum. "It is alarming to find such high levels of contamination, especially when the full effect of these plastics on the delicate balance of deep sea ecosystems is unknown."

The study, which also involved the University of Barcelona, the University of Oxford and the Scottish Association for Marine Science, focussed on deep-sea sediment and coral samples collected by Dr Woodall and other scientists from 16 sites in the Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

Analysis of the non-natural particles at Plymouth University confirmed microplastics were abundant in all the samples (ranging from 1.4-40 pieces per 50ml of sediment), were commonly around 2-3mm in length and were mostly blue, black, green or red in colour.

Rayon -- a humanmade non-plastic polymer used in personal hygiene products and clothing -- contributed to 56.9% of the total fibres seen, with polyester, polyamides, acetate and acrylic among the others recorded.

Professor Richard Thompson, Professor of Marine Biology at Plymouth University, coordinated the study and led the identification process. He said: "The deep sea habitat extends to more than 300 million km² globally, so the discovery of previously under-reported microplastics suggests there may be even greater accumulation than was previously suspected. A range of shallow water organisms are known to ingest microplastics, and the extent of their harmful effects will likely be influenced by their relative abundance. The discovery of substantial quantities in deep-sea sediments is of considerable relevance to our understanding of the potential of these particles to cause harm in the marine environment."

Source:  University of Plymouth

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Centuries of sand still available at Mississippi Delta

These satellite images show a portion of the Mississippi River downstream of Memphis, Tenn., in August 2012 (top) and August 2011 (bottom). During the drought of 2012, record low-water levels revealed vast amounts of sand that are typically hidden below water. New research finds that the river’s supply of sand — the material engineers most need to rebuild the shrinking Mississippi Delta — will stay constant for centuries.

The wetlands of the Mississippi River Delta are slowly sinking and rapidly eroding, but new research from Rice University and the University of South Carolina has found the river's supply of sand -- the material engineers most need to rebuild the delta -- will stay constant for centuries.

The new study, which appears online this week in Nature Geoscience, is encouraging news for scientists and government officials who are working to shore up southeastern Louisiana's rapidly disappearing wetlands. The delta sinks each year as its soil settles and becomes more compact. While floodwaters from the untamed Mississippi River formerly provided a steady supply of sediment to counteract this subsidence, engineers have fought for nearly a century to contain the floods, which threaten the lives and livelihood of millions. Flood-control measures have eliminated about half of the annual supply of sediment that flows downriver, but the new study finds that sand -- they key ingredient for rebuilding marshlands -- is still abundant.

"It's true that the total amount of sediment has diminished, but river sediment contains both fine-grained mud and course-grained sand, and our research found that upstream dam construction has not reduced the amount of sand in the lower Mississippi and won't for at least 300-600 years," said study lead author Jeffrey Nittrouer, assistant professor of Earth science at Rice University.

Nittrouer and co-author Enrica Viparelli, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of South Carolina, analyzed sediment loads in the lower Mississippi and found that while the total amount of sediment -- both sand and mud -- has diminished, the amount of sand trapped by upstream dams is offset by "mining" of new sand downstream.

"When clear water is released from the floodgates at upstream dams, it churns dormant sand that has long been deposited and carries it downriver," Nittrouer said. "This 'mining' of ancient sand makes up for the sand that is trapped by upstream dams, and our numerical models suggest that the sand load in the lower Mississippi River channel will not decline for at least 300 years. Looking even further into the future, we found that 600 years from now, the lower Mississippi River's sand sediment load will have declined by less than 20 percent from today's levels."

Nittrouer, whose research focuses on the sediment transport, hydrology, basin evolution and stratigraphy of lowland river systems, has studied the Mississippi River for the past decade. His previous work included a 2012 study of the land-building processes that took place during the historic flooding of 2011. In one of the largest floodwater diversions of the past century, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened the Bonnet Carré Spillway, a 7,000-foot-wide "safety valve" that diverts floodwater directly to Lake Ponchatrain.

Nittrouer and colleagues found that even though the 42-day diversion siphoned off less than 20 percent of the water flowing downriver, it diverted about 40 percent of the river's sand load into Bonnet Carré. In analyzing how this occurred, Nittrouer and colleagues were able to show what factors the corps should consider in designing sediment diversion projects for wetlands replenishment.

"Our previous work showed how large volumes of sand could be deposited in specific locations, and our latest research shows that significant volumes of sand will be available for land-building for several centuries," Nittrouer said. "Each of these are important because studies at Wax Lake Delta and other sites have shown that sand -- even though it makes up less than 20 percent of the overall river sediment load -- is the key ingredient for land-building."

Source: Rice University

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