A Long dry spell doomed Mexican city 1,000 years ago

Ruins of the city of Cantona in the Mexican state of Puebla, with the mountain Cerro Pizarro in the background. The city was abandoned almost 1,000 years ago, probably as a result of a prolonged dry spell. (Ines Urdaneta image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.)

A UC Berkeley study sheds new light on this question, providing evidence that a prolonged period of below-average rainfall was partly responsible for the abandonment of one such city, Cantona, between A.D. 900 and A.D. 1050.

At its peak, Cantona, located in a dry, volcanic basin (La Cuenca Oriental) east of today’s Mexico City, was one of the largest cities in the New World, with 90,000 inhabitants. The area was a major source of obsidian, and the city may have played a military role alongside an important trade route from the Veracruz coast into the highlands.

To assess the climate in that area before and after Cantona’s collapse, UC Berkeley geographers analyzed sediment cores from a lake located 20 miles south of the former city. They found evidence of a 650-year period of frequent droughts that extended from around A.D. 500 to about A.D. 1150. This was part of a long-term drying trend in highland Mexico that started 2,200 years ago, around 200 B.C. The climate became wetter again in about A.D. 1300, just prior to the rise of the Aztec empire.

“The decline of Cantona occurred during this dry interval, and we conclude that climate change probably played a role, at least towards the end of the city’s existence,” said lead author Tripti Bhattacharya, a UC Berkeley graduate student.

Surprisingly, the population of Cantona increased during the early part of the dry period, perhaps because of political upheaval elsewhere that increased the importance of the heavily fortified city, she said. Teotihuacan, less than 100 miles to the west, was in decline at the time, also possibly because of more frequent droughts. 

Lake Aljojuca, Mexico
The maar lake Aljojuca, 20 miles south of Cantona, yielded sediments that recorded a lengthy series of droughts between A.D. 500 and 1150. (Tripti Bhattacharya photo)

“In a sense the area became important because of the increased frequency of drought,” said UC Berkeley associate professor of geography Roger Byrne. “But when the droughts continued on such a scale, the subsistence base for the whole area changed and people just had to leave. The city was abandoned.”

Bhattacharya, Byrne and their colleagues report their findings in an article appearing this week in the early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The UC Berkeley researchers analyzed lake cores provided by scientists at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Juriquilla, Querétaro, Mexico and the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany.

Political upheaval and climate change

Byrne emphasized that the area’s typical monsoon weather with wet summers and dry winters did not stop, but was interrupted by frequent short-term droughts, no doubt affecting crops and water supplies. Today the area is close to the northern limit of maize production without irrigation, and would have been particularly vulnerable to drier conditions, he said.

Byrne, a member of the Berkeley Initiative on Global Change Biology (BiGCB) and curator of fossil pollen in the Museum of Paleontology, has studied sediment cores from many lakes in Mexico and California, and is particularly interested in possible links between climate change and human activities.

Nearly 20 years ago, he learned of Cantona and traveled with students to the areas three times to obtain cores from lakes near the site, most of which are maar lakes created by magma explosions. They are deep and often contain undisturbed and regularly layered sediments ideal for chronological studies.

Tripti Bhattacharya
Tripti Bhattacharya analyzed carbonates in lake sediments to explore the climate history of the Cuenca Oriental east of Mexico City. (Ellie Broadman photo)

German colleagues cored this particular lake, Aljojuca, in 2007, and Bhattacharya traveled to Potsdam to collect sediment samples. Oxygen isotope ratios in carbonate sediments are correlated with the ratio of precipitation to evaporation and thus indicate aridity. Organic material in the sediments was used for accelerator mass spectroscopy carbon-14 dating.

“We can show that both the growth and decline of the site took place during a time period of frequent drought, which forces us to think in more nuanced ways about how political and social factors interact with environmental factors to cause social and cultural change,” Bhattacharya said. “That makes the study particularly interesting.”

Bhattacharya noted that more studies are necessary to reconstruct the prehistoric climate of highland Mexico. Such studies could reveal the causes of prehistoric climatic change and whether they were similar to the factors that regulate the region’s climate today, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Co-authors include Harald Böhnel and Kurt Wogau of UNAM, Juriquilla; Ulrike Kienel of the German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam; B. Lynn Ingram of UC Berkeley; and Susan Zimmerman of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The work was funded by the National Science Foundation.

Source: UC Berkeley

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Lemurs: Gardeners of Madagascar rainforest at risk

Onja Razafindratsima, a graduate student at Rice University, observes a lemur in a Madagascar rainforest. Razafindratsima led a three-year study to explore the relationship between lemurs and trees. Lemurs eat the fruit and spread its seeds far from the parent tree to help ensure its survival. Credit: Photo courtesy of Onja Razafindratsima/Rice University

A majority of Madagascar's 101 species of lemurs are threatened with extinction, and that could have serious consequences for the rainforests they call home. A new study by Rice University researchers shows the positive impacts lemurs can have on rainforest tree populations, which raises concerns about the potential impact their disappearance could have on the region's rich biodiversity.

A large proportion of trees in Madagascar's rainforest have fruits eaten by lemurs. Lemurs in turn disperse the seeds of their fruit trees throughout the forest with their scat. Such dispersal can play a crucial role for a tree species' ability to regenerate, but effects are poorly understood, especially when there are multiple dispersers.

For the tree, the evolutionary advantage of having animal-dispersed seeds may be that the seeds land well away from their parent trees where survival is low or that seeds are directed into spots where they are the most likely to sprout and survive.

Amy Dunham, an assistant professor of biosciences, and graduate student Onja Razafindratsima set out to detail the symbiotic relationship between fruit-eating lemurs and the trees that feed them through a three-year study in a rainforest in southeastern Madagascar.

Their data from observations, experiments and mathematical models demonstrate that seeds of a common canopy tree have a 300 percent higher chance of sprouting and becoming a sapling when dispersed by lemurs versus simply falling to the ground. One of the three lemur species is particularly good at dropping seeds in spots that are most advantageous for sprouting and survival. Other lemurs are not so selective, but still benefit the tree by moving seeds away from the parent tree. By acting as forest gardeners, these animals give the tree's population a boost.

The study appeared online in the Ecological Society of America journal Ecology.

As part of the study, the researchers followed the seed-dispersal patterns of three of Madagascar's lemur species: the red-fronted brown lemur, the red-bellied lemur and the southern black-and-white ruffed lemur. That meant tracking and observing groups of lemurs as the animals leaped from tree to tree through the forest, dined in the 65-foot-high canopies and dropped their undigested seeds at ground level.

Razafindratsima led the study as part of a thesis project she expects to complete early next year. She built a team of local researchers near Ranomafana National Park, the home of Centre ValBio, a research station founded by Dunham's former Ph.D. adviser, primatologist Patricia Wright.

"We have a team of up to 10 local villagers who are trained to do research," said Razafindratsima, a native of Madagascar. "Their exceptional knowledge of the forest is very important to us when we're trying to track lemurs and identify seeds and seedlings in a forest with over 300 species of trees."

The research team tracked 24 groups of lemurs over a year without the benefit of radio collars, said Razafindratsima, who keeps in touch with her team via phone and Skype when she's at Rice. She said the study sites were as close as a short hike from Centre ValBio and as far as a two-day trek through steep terrain that entailed camping overnight.

In addition to tracking lemurs and their dispersed seeds, the research team spent three years carrying out experiments on seed sprouting and survival. They found that dispersal by lemurs dramatically increased the odds that seeds would take root and survive. In particular, the red-fronted brown lemurs tended to drop seeds away from their parent trees and in places where there were gaps in the canopy. This gave individual seeds the best shot at taking root.

Dunham said trees benefit from the wide dispersal of their seeds, and for some species in Madagascar, lemurs are the primary or only animal that can distribute those seeds. As the largest fruit-eaters in the system, these lemurs swallow seeds that may be too large for other fruit-eating animals, such as birds or bats.

"Seeds away from the parent tree survive better because there's less competition among seedlings," Razafindratsima said. "If they're close by the parent, they may also share the same natural enemies, like soil pathogens and seed predators, so there's higher mortality."

Trees that lose their dispersers will simply drop their seeds to the ground beneath their canopies, where chances of survival are slim, Dunham said. "Lemurs fill an important role as the gardeners for these trees. By ensuring that some seeds land in spots suitable for germination and survival, they increase the ability of these trees to replace themselves"

Dunham hopes the study will contribute to growing efforts to protect lemurs, and therefore the rainforest, which has been impacted in recent years by economic and political instability.

She noted grassroots efforts within Madagascar led to the first World Lemur Festival in late October to celebrate and protect the animals and their habitats in Madagascar.

"What got us interested is that frugivorous lemur populations are declining across the island, and we know very little about how these seed dispersers actually affect tree populations," she said. "Once we understand that better, maybe we'll have a better idea of how the community might change if the lemurs disappear.

"If some species suddenly lose their dispersers, but others dispersed by birds or the wind are doing fine, it may change population trajectories and alter which tree species are dominant in a community. To understand what happens when these species are lost, we need to understand their role in the ecosystem," she said.

Source: Rice University

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Seeing the forest for the trees: Youngest trees in a forest tell the biggest story

LSU ecologist Kyle Harms co-authors first study to quantify the process of diversification in forests and likely all other sessile ecosystems. Credit: Louisiana State University

The largest trees in a forest may command the most attention, but the smallest seedlings and youngest saplings are the ones that are most critical to the composition and diversity of the forest overall. While many people gaze up into the forest canopy, scientist Joseph Connell has spent much of his career looking down quite closely at the forest understory. Connell, who is a professor emeritus in the Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology at the University of California at Santa Barbara, established one of the world's longest, in-depth ecological research studies on the planet. The Connell Plots Rainforest Network has thus far produced a 50-year collection of data on individual trees in Australia's protected rainforests.

"Having such a long-term, detailed dataset is highly unusual. It's the kind of temporal depth we need to answer some of the big questions such as, what are the ecological processes that maintain diversity?" said Kyle Harms, professor in the LSU Department of Biological Sciences and a collaborator with Connell.

Early in his career, Harms was a post-doctoral researcher in Connell's lab at U.C. Santa Barbara. There, he met former fellow post-doctoral researcher and current collaborator Peter Green, who is a senior lecturer at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia.

Harms and Green were inspired to use their mentor's dataset; therefore, they devised an analysis to test the long-standing hypothesis that the patterns of composition and diversity among a forest's mature trees are largely set by processes that occur in trees' earliest life stages. Harms ran statistical analyses on 7,977 individual trees across 186 species that were censused in one of Connell's tropical Australian forest plots from 1971-2013.

He repeatedly ran simulation analyses on six tiers of trees based on size in order to predict the expected outcome of diversity at each tier. Then he compared the expected levels of diversity in each tier with the true collected data.

"What we found was that the seedlings are more diverse than the statistical expectations predicted them to be, but the larger trees' levels of diversity were about the same as the predictions" he said.

These results are the first quantitative evidence that the earliest life cycle stages of individual trees are more critical than later stages to the overall relative abundances of mature trees in a forest. Their findings will be published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this week.

The stronger influence of ecological sorting processes operating at the earliest life cycle stages compared to later life stages, which they quantified, also likely occurs in other highly diverse ecosystems with rooted, or sessile, organisms including grasslands, herbaceous plant communities and marine communities of coral.

"I think this is something that is happening broadly in ecosystems across the planet," Harms said.

He and his collaborators' results underscore the importance of support for long-term, in-depth datasets, as well as the need to investigate the early life stages -- for example, the smallest, newly germinated seedlings -- where the most critical processes are occurring.

"I think it helps us understand where to focus in order to really understand the biased sorting processes that create the composition and diversity patterns in the forest overall," he said.

Source: Louisiana State University

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