The tsunami-early warning system for the indian ocean: Ten years after

Technical concept of GITEWS.

The day after Christmas this year will mark the 10 anniversary of the tsunami disaster in the Indian Ocean. On 26 December 2004, a quarter of a million people lost their lives, five million required immediate aid and 1.8 million citizens were rendered homeless. The natural disaster, which caused extreme devastation over huge areas and the accompanying grief and anxiety, especially in Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka exceeded the imaginable and reached such drastic dimensions, mainly due to the lack of a warning facility and a disaster management plan for the entire Indian Ocean region at this time.

Germany and the international community of states reacted with immediate support. Within the framework of the German Flood Victim Aid the Federal Government commissioned the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres under the direction of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences with the development of an Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean. From 2005 to 2011, with the large-scale project GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System), the core of an integrated, modern, and effective Tsunami Early Warning System in Indonesia was established. With the follow-up project PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning Systems, 2011-2014) the personnel of the participating Indonesian institutions were trained to proceed independently and to take over responsibility for the operation of the Early Warning System as well as for the diverse technical and organizational components. In this ways PROTECTS which started in June 2011 and comprised a total of 192 training courses, internships, and hands-on-practice courses, covering all aspects of operation and maintenance of the Tsunami-Early Warning System contributed significantly to the sustainability of InaTEWS.

Under the auspices of the IntergovernmentalOceanographicCommission of UNESCO and with the collaboration of international partner institutes from Germany, the USA, China and Japan, GITEWS was integrated into a Tsunami Early Warning System for Indonesia. GITEWS was positively reviewed by a commission of international experts in 2010 and handed over to Indonesia in March 2011. Since then it has been providing its services under the name InaTEWS -- Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System and is operated by the Indonesian Service for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics BMKG.

On 12 October 2011 the exercise drill "IOWAVE11" was carried out in the Indian Ocean. With this drill, InaTEWS successfully demonstrated that it could, furthermore, take over the role of a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP). Since then Indonesia, in addition to Australia und India, performs the double function as a National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and also as a RTSP and takes over the responsibility for the timely warning of 28 states around the Indian Ocean in the event of a threatening Tsunami. With the on-going step-by-step development, a comprehensive all-encompassing InaTEWS could be successfully realized.

Indonesia now avails of one of the most modern Tsunami Early Warning Systems. On the basis of data from approx. 300 measuring stations a warning can be issued at a maximum of five minutes after an earthquake. These measuring stations include e.g. seismometers, GPS stations und coastal tide gauges. With the data gained from the sensors and using the most modern evaluation systems such as SeisComP3 which was developed by GFZ scientists for the analyses of earthquake data and a Tsunami simulation system in the Warning Centre it is possible to compile a comprehensive picture of the situation. With the aid of a decision support system respectively classified warnings for the affected coastal areas can then be issued. A total of 70 people are involved the operation of the Warning Centre in Jakarta, with 30 employees working solely in a full shift system. According to information provided by the BMKG a total of 1700 earthquakes with a magnitude of more than M= 5 and 11 quakes with a magnitude of 7 and higher have been evaluated and six Tsunami Warnings have been issued to the public by the Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Centre since the hand over in March 2011.

Schooling, training and disaster precautions (capacity development) for the local community and Town and District councils have received special emphasis. This Capacity Development has been carried out since 2006 in three "typical" regions: Padang (Sumatra), Chilacap (South-Java) and Denpassar (Bali, tourist stronghold). Here particular emphasis was placed on understanding both the warnings issued and the planned evacuation measures.

Local disaster management structures are established with local decision-makers and Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies are developed. Specifically, the education of trainers who are, in turn, responsible for the further spreading of the developed concepts plays a significant role.

Another key element is the determination of hazard and risk maps as a basis for the local evacuation planning as well as for future town and land-use planning. In Bali communication with the hotel industry was an additional factor.

No Early Warning System will ever be able to prevent a strong earthquake and a resulting tsunami and also, in the future, there will be loss of life and material damage. However, through the existence of an Early Warning System and the integration of organizational measures together with comprehensive capacity building the adverse effects of such a natural disaster can certainly be reduced.

Source: Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

Read More

Subtle shifts in the Earth could forecast earthquakes, tsunamis

University of South Florida graduate student Denis Voytenko prepares a GPS unit for a high-precision geodetic measurement.
Credit: Jacob Richardson

Earthquakes and tsunamis can be giant disasters no one sees coming, but now an international team of scientists led by a University of South Florida professor has found that subtle shifts in Earth's offshore plates can be a harbinger of the size of the disaster.

In a new paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USF geologist Tim Dixon and the team report that a geological phenomenon called "slow slip events" identified just 15 years ago is a useful tool in identifying the precursors to major earthquakes and the resulting tsunamis. The scientists used high precision GPS to measure the slight shifts on a fault line in Costa Rica, and say better monitoring of these small events can lead to better understanding of maximum earthquake size and tsunami risk.

"Giant earthquakes and tsunamis in the last decade -- Sumatra in 2004 and Japan in 2011 -- are a reminder that our ability to forecast these destructive events is painfully weak," Dixon said.

Dixon was involved in the development of high precision GPS for geophysical applications, and has been making GPS measurements in Costa Rica since 1988, in collaboration with scientists at Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Costa Rica, the University of California-Santa Cruz, and Georgia Tech. The project is funded by the National Science Foundation.

Slow slip events have some similarities to earthquakes (caused by motion on faults) but release their energy slowly, over weeks or months, and cannot be felt or even recorded by conventional seismographs, Dixon said. Their discovery in 2001 by Canadian scientist Herb Dragert at the Pacific Geoscience Center had to await the development of high precision GPS, which is capable of measuring subtle movements of the Earth.

The scientists studied the Sept. 5, 2012 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary, as well as motions of the Earth in the previous decade. High precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events in the decade leading up to the 2012 earthquake. The scientists made their measurements from a peninsula overlying the shallow portion of a megathrust fault in northwest Costa Rica.

The 7.6-magnitude quake was one of the strongest earthquakes ever to hit the Central American nation and unleased more than 1,600 aftershocks. Marino Protti, one of the authors of the paper and a resident of Costa Rica, has spent more than two decades warning local populations of the likelihood of a major earthquake in their area and recommending enhanced building codes.

A tsunami warning was issued after the quake, but only a small tsunami occurred. The group's finding shed some light on why: slow slip events in the offshore region in the decade leading up to the earthquake may have released much of the stress and strain that would normally occur on the offshore fault.

While the group's findings suggest that slow slip events have limited value in knowing exactly when an earthquake and tsunami will strike, they suggest that these events provide critical hazard assessment information by delineating rupture area and the magnitude and tsunami potential of future earthquakes.

The scientists recommend monitoring slow slip events in order to provide accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.

Source: University of South Florida (USF Health)

Read More

Exploring a large, restless volcanic field in Chile

Laguna del Maule, Chile, is at the center of a volcanic field that has erupted 36 times during the last 25,000 years, and is now experiencing significant uplift due to magma intrusion.
Credit: David Tenenbaum

If Brad Singer knew for sure what was happening three miles under an odd-shaped lake in the Andes, he might be less eager to spend a good part of his career investigating a volcanic field that has erupted 36 times during the last 25,000 years. As he leads a large scientific team exploring a region in the Andes called Laguna del Maule, Singer hopes the area remains quiet.

But the primary reason to expend so much effort on this area boils down to one fact: The rate of uplift is among the highest ever observed by satellite measurement for a volcano that is not actively erupting.

That uplift is almost definitely due to a large intrusion of magma -- molten rock -- beneath the volcanic complex. For seven years, an area larger than the city of Madison has been rising by 10 inches per year.

That rapid rise provides a major scientific opportunity: to explore a mega-volcano before it erupts. That effort, and the hazard posed by the restless magma reservoir beneath Laguna del Maule, are described in a major research article in the December issue of the Geological Society of America's GSA Today.

"We've always been looking at these mega-eruptions in the rear-view mirror," says Singer. 

"We look at the lava, dust and ash, and try to understand what happened before the eruption. Since these huge eruptions are rare, that's usually our only option. But we look at the steady uplift at Laguna del Maule, which has a history of regular eruptions, combined with changes in gravity, electrical conductivity and swarms of earthquakes, and we suspect that conditions necessary to trigger another eruption are gathering force."

Laguna del Maule looks nothing like a classic, cone-shaped volcano, since the high-intensity erosion caused by heavy rain and snow has carried most of the evidence to the nearby Pacific Ocean. But the overpowering reason for the absence of "typical volcano cones" is the nature of the molten rock underground. It's called rhyolite, and it's the most explosive type of magma on the planet.

The eruption of a rhyolite volcano is too quick and violent to build up a cone. Instead, this viscous, water-rich magma often explodes into vast quantities of ash that can form deposits hundreds of yards deep, followed by a slower flow of glassy magma that can be tens of yards tall and measure more than a mile in length.

The next eruption could be in the size range of Mount St. Helens -- or it could be vastly bigger, Singer says. "We know that over the past million years or so, several eruptions at Laguna del Maule or nearby volcanoes have been more than 100 times larger than Mount St. Helens," he says. "Those are rare, but they are possible." Such a mega-eruption could change the weather, disrupt the ecosystem and damage the economy.

Trying to anticipate what Laguna del Maule holds in store, Singer is heading a new $3 million, five-year effort sponsored by the National Science Foundation to document its behavior before an eruption. With colleagues from Chile, Argentina, Canada, Singapore, and Cornell and Georgia Tech universities, he is masterminding an effort to build a scientific model of the underground forces that could lead to eruption. "This model should capture how this system has evolved in the crust at all scales, from the microscopic to basinwide, over the last 100,000 years," Singer says. "It's like a movie from the past to the present and into the future."

Over the next five years, Singer says he and 30 colleagues will "throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at the problem -- geology, geochemistry, geochronology and geophysics -- to help measure, and then model, what's going on."

One key source of information on volcanoes is seismic waves. Ground shaking triggered by the movement of magma can signal an impending eruption. Team member Clifford Thurber, a seismologist and professor of geoscience at UW-Madison, wants to use distant earthquakes to locate the underground magma body.

As many as 50 seismometers will eventually be emplaced above and around the magma at Laguna del Maule, in the effort to create a 3-D image of Earth's crust in the area.

By tracking multiple earthquakes over several years, Thurber and his colleagues want to pinpoint the size and location of the magma body -- roughly estimated as an oval measuring five kilometers (3.1 miles) by 10 kilometers (6.2 miles).

Each seismometer will record the travel time of earthquake waves originating within a few thousand kilometers, Thurber explains. Since soft rock transmits sound less efficiently than hard rock, "we expect that waves that pass through the presumed magma body will be delayed," Thurber says. "It's very simple. It's like a CT scan, except instead of density we are looking at seismic wave velocity."

As Singer, who has been visiting Laguna del Maule since 1998, notes, "The rate of uplift -- among the highest ever observed -- has been sustained for seven years, and we have discovered a large, fluid-rich zone in the crust under the lake using electrical resistivity methods. Thus, there are not many possible explanations other than a big, active body of magma at a shallow depth."

The expanding body of magma could freeze in place -- or blow its top, he says. "One thing we know for sure is that the surface cannot continue rising indefinitely."

Source:  University of Wisconsin-Madison

Read More

Colorado's Front Range fire severity not much different than past

A new study indicates present-day forest fires on Colorado's Front Range are not significantly more intense than historical fires. Credit: Glenn Asakawa, University of Colorado

The perception that Colorado's Front Range wildfires are becoming increasingly severe does not hold much water scientifically, according to a massive new study led by the University of Colorado Boulder and Humboldt State University in Arcata, Calif.

The study authors, who looked at 1.3 million acres of ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest from Teller County west of Colorado Springs through Larimer County west and north of Fort Collins, reconstructed the timing and severity of past fires using fire-scarred trees and tree-ring data going back to the 1600s. Only 16 percent of the study area showed a shift from historically low-severity fires to severe, potential crown fires that can jump from treetop to treetop.

The idea that modern fires are larger and more severe as a result of fire suppression that allowed forest fuels to build up in the past century is still prevalent among some, said CU-Boulder geography Professor Thomas Veblen, a study co-author. "The key point here is that modern fires in these Front Range forests are not radically different from the fire severity of the region prior to any effects of fire suppression," he said.

A paper on the subject was published Sept. 24 in the journal PLOS ONE. The study was led by Associate Professor Rosemary Sherriff of Humboldt State University and involved Research Scientist Tania Schoennagel of CU-Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, CU-Boulder doctoral student Meredith Gartner and Associate Professor Rutherford Platt of Gettysburg College in Gettysburg, Pa.

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation.

"The common assumption is that fires are now more severe and are killing higher percentages of trees," said Sherriff, who completed her doctorate at CU-Boulder under Veblen in 2004. "Our results show that this is not the case on the Front Range except for the lowest elevation forests and woodlands."

One important new finding comes from a comparison of nine large fires that have occurred on the Front Range since 2000 -- including the 2002 Hayman Fire southwest of Denver, the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire west of Boulder and the 2012 High Park Fire west of Fort Collins -- with historic fire effects in the region.

"It's true that the Colorado Front Range has experienced a number of large fires recently," said Schoennagel. "While more area has burned recently compared to prior decades -- with more homes coming into the line of fire -- the severity of recent fires is not unprecedented when we look at fire records going back before the 1900s."

In addition, tree-ring evidence from the new study shows there were several years on the Front Range since the 1650s when there were very large, severe fires. The authors looked at more than 1,200 fire-scarred tree samples and nearly 8,000 samples of tree ages at 232 forest sample sites from Teller County to Larimer County.

The study is one of the largest of its kind ever undertaken in the western United States. The team was especially interested in fire records before about 1920, when effective fire suppression in the West began in earnest.

"In relatively dry ponderosa pine forests of the West, a common assumption is that fires were relatively frequent and of low severity, and not lethal to most large trees, prior to fuel build-up in the 20th century," said Veblen. "But our study results showed that about 70 percent of the forest study area experienced a combination of moderate and high-severity fires in which large percentages of the mature trees were killed."

Along the Front Range, especially at higher elevations, homeowners and fire managers should expect a number of high-severity fires unrelated to any kind of fire suppression and fuel build-up, said Schoennagel. "This matters because high-severity fires are dangerous to people, kill more trees and are trickier and more expensive to suppress."

"Severe fires are not new to most forests in this region," said Sherriff. "What is new is the expanded wildland-urban interface hazard to people and property and the high cost of suppressing fires for society."

In addition, a warming Colorado climate -- 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1977 -- has become a wild card regarding future Front Range fires, according to the team. While fires are dependent on ignition sources and can be dramatically influenced by high winds, the team expects to see a substantial increase in Front Range fire activity in the low and mid-elevations in the coming years as temperatures continue to warm, a result of rising greenhouses gases in Earth's atmosphere.

Source: University of Colorado at Boulder

Read More

Early warning signals of abrupt climate change

Drought (stock image). Credit: © carloscastilla / Fotolia

A new study by researchers at the University of Exeter has found early warning signals of a reorganisation of the Atlantic ocean's circulation which could have a profound impact on the global climate system.

The research, published today in the journal Nature Communications, used a simulation from a highly complex model to analyse the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), an important component of the Earth's climate system.

It showed that early warning signals are present up to 250 years before it collapses, suggesting that scientists could monitor the real world overturning circulation for the same signals.

The AMOC is like a conveyor belt in the ocean, driven by the salinity and temperature of the water. The system transports heat energy from the tropics and Southern Hemisphere to the North Atlantic, where it is transferred to the atmosphere.

Experiments suggest that if the AMOC is 'switched off' by extra freshwater entering the North Atlantic, surface air temperature in the North Atlantic region would cool by around 1-3°C, with enhanced cooling of up to 8°C in the worst affected regions.

The collapse would also encourage drought in the Sahel -- the area just south of the Sahara desert -- and dynamic changes in sea level of up to 80cm along the coasts of Europe and North America.

"We found that natural fluctuations in the circulation were getting longer-lived as the collapse was approached, a phenomenon known as critical slowing down," said lead author Chris Boulton.

"We don't know how close we are to a collapse of the circulation, but a real world early warning could help us prevent it, or at least prepare for the consequences" adds co-author Professor Tim Lenton.

The study is the most realistic simulation of the climate system in which this type of early warning signal has been tested.

"The best early warning signals in the model world are in places where major efforts are going into monitoring the circulation in the real world -- so these efforts could have unexpected added value' adds Professor Lenton.

Source: University of Exeter

Read More

Source of volcanoes may be much closer than thought: Geophysicists challenge traditional theory underlying origin of mid-plate volcanoes

Traditional thought holds that hot updrafts from the Earth's core cause volcanoes, but researchers say eruptions may stem from the asthenosphere, a layer closer to the surface.
Credit: Virginia Tech

A long-held assumption about the Earth is discussed in today's edition of Science, as Don L. Anderson, an emeritus professor with the Seismological Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, and Scott King, a professor of geophysics in the College of Science at Virginia Tech, look at how a layer beneath the Earth's crust may be responsible for volcanic eruptions.

The discovery challenges conventional thought that volcanoes are caused when plates that make up the planet's crust shift and release heat.

Instead of coming from deep within the interior of the planet, the responsibility is closer to the surface, about 80 kilometers to 200 kilometers deep -- a layer above the Earth's mantle, known as the as the asthenosphere.

"For nearly 40 years there has been a debate over a theory that volcanic island chains, such as Hawaii, have been formed by the interaction between plates at the surface and plumes of hot material that rise from the core-mantle boundary nearly 1,800 miles below the Earth's surface," King said. "Our paper shows that a hot layer beneath the plates may explain the origin of mid-plate volcanoes without resorting to deep conduits from halfway to the center of the Earth."

Traditionally, the asthenosphere has been viewed as a passive structure that separates the moving tectonic plates from the mantle.

As tectonic plates move several inches every year, the boundaries between the plates spawn most of the planet's volcanoes and earthquakes.

"As the Earth cools, the tectonic plates sink and displace warmer material deep within the interior of the Earth," explained King. "This material rises as two broad, passive updrafts that seismologists have long recognized in their imaging of the interior of the Earth."
The work of Anderson and King, however, shows that the hot, weak region beneath the plates acts as a lubricating layer, preventing the plates from dragging the material below along with them as they move.

The researchers show this lubricating layer is also the hottest part of the mantle, so there is no need for heat to be carried up to explain mid-plate volcanoes.

"We're taking the position that plate tectonics and mid-plate volcanoes are the natural results of processes in the plates and the layer beneath them," King said.

Source: Virginia Tech

Read More

Hurricane-forecast satellites will keep close eyes on the tropics

A set of eight satellites -- each about the size of a microwave oven -- will launch in 2016 and provide scientists unprecedented information about the formation and evolution of hurricanes. Credit: Aaron Ridley

 A set of eight hurricane-forecast satellites being developed at the University of Michigan is expected to give deep insights into how and where storms suddenly intensify--a little-understood process that's becoming more crucial to figure out as the climate changes, U-M researchers say.

The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System is scheduled to launch in fall 2016. At the American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco this week, U-M researchers released estimates of how significantly CYGNSS could improve wind speed and storm intensity forecasts.

CYGNSS--said like the swan constellation--is a $173-million NASA mission that U-M is leading with Texas-based Southwest Research Institute. Each of its eight observatories is about the size of a microwave oven. That's much smaller than a typical weather satellite, which is about the size of a van.

The artificial CYGNSS "constellation," as researchers refer to it, will orbit at tropical, hurricane-belt latitudes. Its coverage will stretch from the 38th parallel north near Delaware's latitude to its counterpart in the south just below Buenos Aires.

Because of their arrangement and number, the observatories will be able to measure the same spot on the globe much more often than the weather satellites flying today can. CYGNSS's revisit time will average between four and six hours, and at times, it can be as fast as 12 minutes.

Conventional weather satellites only cross over the same point once or twice a day. Meteorologists can use ground-based Doppler radar to help them make predictions about storms near land, but hurricanes, which form over the open ocean, present a tougher problem.

"The rapid refresh CYGNSS will offer is a key element of how we'll be able to improve hurricane forecasts," said CYGNSS lead investigator Christopher Ruf, director of the U-M Space Physics Research Lab and professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences.
"CYGNSS gets us the ability to measure things that change fast, like extreme weather. Those are the hardest systems to measure with today's satellites. And because the world is warmer and there's more energy to feed storm systems, there's more likelihood of extreme weather."
Through simulations, the researchers quantified the improvement CYGNSS could have on storm intensity predictions. They found that for a wind speed forecast that is off by 33 knots, or 38 miles per hour--the average error with current capabilities--CYGNSS could reduce that by 9 knots, or about 10 mph.

Considering that the categories of hurricane strength ratchet up, on average, every 20 mph, the accuracy boost is "a very significant number," Ruf said.

"I'd describe the feeling about it as guarded excitement," he said. "It's preliminary and it's all based on models. People will be really excited when we get up there and it works."
The numbers could also improve as scientists update weather prediction tools to better use the new kind of information that CYGNSS will provide.

For people who live in common hurricane or typhoon paths, closer wind speed predictions could translate into more accurate estimates of the storm surge at landfall, Ruf said. That's the main way these systems harm people and property.

"The whole ocean gets higher because the wind pushes the water. That's really hard to forecast now and it's an area we hope to make big improvements in," Ruf said.
Researchers expect the satellite system to give them new insights into storm processes. Hurricanes evolve slowly at first, but then they reach a tipping point, says Aaron Ridley, a professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences.

"The hurricane could be meandering across the Atlantic Ocean and then something happens." Ridley said. "It kicks up a notch and people aren't exactly sure why. A lot of scientists would like to study this rapid intensification in more detail. With a normal mission, you might not be able to see it, but with CYGNSS, you have a better chance."
The satellites will operate in a fundamentally different way than their counterparts do. Rather than transmit a signal and read what reflects back, they'll measure how GPS signals from other satellites bounce off the ocean surface. Each of the eight CYGNSS nodes will measure signals from four of the 32 Global Positioning System satellites.

They'll also be able to take measurements through heavy rain--something other weather satellites are, surprisingly, not very good at.

Source: University of Michigan

Read More

A global surge of great earthquakes from 2004-2014 and implications for Cascadia

The last ten years have been a remarkable time for great earthquakes. Since December 2004 there have been no less than 18 quakes of Mw8.0 or greater -- a rate of more than twice that seen from 1900 to mid-2004. Hundreds of thousands of lives have been lost and massive damage has resulted from these great earthquakes. But as devastating as such events can be, these recent great quakes have come with a silver lining: They coincide with unprecedented advances in technological and scientific capacity for learning from them.

"We previously had very limited information about how ruptures grow into great earthquakes and interact with regions around them," said seismologist Thorne Lay of the University of California at Santa Cruz. "So we are using the recorded data for these recent events to guide our understanding of future earthquakes. We've gained a new level of appreciation for how one earthquake can influence events in other zones."

High on the list of areas ripe for a great quake is Cascadia, the Pacific Northwest, where the risk for great quakes had long been under appreciated. Evidence began surfacing about 20 years ago that there had been a great quake in the region in the year 1700. Since then the view of the great quake risk in Cascadia has shifted dramatically.

"We don't know many details about what happened in 1700," said Lay. There were no instruments back then to observe and record it. And so the best way to try and understand the danger and what could happen in Cascadia is to study the recent events elsewhere.

Over the last decade Lay and his colleagues have been able to gather fine details about these giant earthquakes using data from an expanded global networks of seismometers, GPS stations, tsunami gauges, and new satellite imaging capabilities such as GRACE, InSAR, and LandSAT interferometry. Among the broader conclusions they have come to is that great quakes are very complicated and idiosyncratic. Lay will be presenting some of those idiosyncrasies at the meeting of the Geological Society of America in Vancouver on Oct. 21.

"What we've seen is that we can have multiple faults activated," said Lay. "We've seen it off Sumatra and off Japan. Once earthquakes get going they can activate faulting in areas that were thought not physically feasible."

The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, for instance, unzipped a 1,300 kilometer long segment of the subduction zone and unleashed one of history's most destructive, deadly tsunamis. Much of the rupture was along a region with very limited plate convergence. In Japan, the Kuril Islands, and the Solomon Islands, great mega-thrust ruptures have ruptured portions of the subduction zones that were thought too warm or weak to experience earthquakes.

"These earthquakes ruptured right through areas that had been considered to have low risk," said Lay. "We thought that would not happen. But it did, so we have to adjust our understanding."

Perhaps the best recent analogy to Cascadia is off the coast of Iquique, Chile, said Lay. There had been a great quake in 1877, and a conspicuous gap in quakes ever since. Like the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, there is little data for the 1877 event, which killed more than 2,500 people. In both subduction zones, the converging plates are thought to be accumulating strain which could be released in a very large and violent rupture. On April 1 of this year, some of that strain was released offshore of Iquique. There was a Mw8.1 rupture in the northern portion of the seismic gap. But it involved slip over less than 20 percent of the region that seismologists believe to have accumulated strain since 1877.

"We have no idea why only a portion of the 1877 zone ruptured," said Lay. "But clearly, 80 percent of that zone is still unruptured. We don't have a good basis for assessment of how the rest will fail. It's the same for Cascadia. We don't know if it always goes all at once or sometimes in sequences of smaller events, with alternating pattern. It is prudent to prepare for the worst case of failure of the entire region in a single event, but it may not happen that way every time."

What is certain is that studying these recent big earthquakes has given geophysicists the best information ever about how they work and point to new ways to begin understanding what could be in Cascadia's future.

Source: Geological Society of America

Read More

The Massive debris pile reveals risk of huge tsunamis in Hawaii

The researchers simulated earthquakes with magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.6 originating at different locations along the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, and found that the unique geometry of the eastern Aleutians would direct the largest post-earthquake tsunami energy directly toward the Hawaiian Islands. The red circles are centered on Kaua‘i and encircle the Big Island. Credit: Rhett Butler

A mass of marine debris discovered in a giant sinkhole in the Hawaiian islands provides evidence that at least one mammoth tsunami, larger than any in Hawaii's recorded history, has struck the islands, and that a similar disaster could happen again, new research finds. Scientists are reporting that a wall of water up to nine meters (30 feet) high surged onto Hawaiian shores about 500 years ago. A 9.0-magnitude earthquake off the coast of the Aleutian Islands triggered the mighty wave, which left behind up to nine shipping containers worth of ocean sediment in a sinkhole on the island of Kauai.

The tsunami was at least three times the size of a 1946 tsunami that was the most destructive in Hawaii's recent history, according to the new study that examined deposits believed to have come from the extreme event and used models to show how it might have occurred. Tsunamis of this magnitude are rare events. An earthquake in the eastern Aleutian Trench big enough to generate a massive tsunami like the one in the study is expected to occur once every thousand years, meaning that there is a 0.1 percent chance of it happening in any given year -- the same probability as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake that struck Japan, according to Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach, Hawaii.

Nevertheless, the new research has prompted Honolulu officials to revise their tsunami evacuation maps to account for the possibility of an extreme tsunami hitting the county of nearly 1 million people. The new maps would more than double the area of evacuation in some locations, according to Fryer.
"You're going to have great earthquakes on planet Earth, and you're going to have great tsunamis," said Rhett Butler, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa and lead author of the new study published online in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. "People have to at least appreciate that the possibility is there."

Hawaiians have told stories about colossal tsunamis hitting the islands for generations, but possible evidence of these massive waves was only first detected in the late 1990s when David Burney, a paleoecologist at the National Tropical Botanical Garden in Kalaheo, was excavating the Makauwahi sinkhole, a collapsed limestone cave on the south shore of Kauai.

Two meters (six and a half feet) below the surface he encountered a layer of sediment marked by coral fragments, mollusk shells and coarse beach sand that could only have come from the sea. But the mouth of the sinkhole was separated from the shore by 100 meters (328 feet) of land and seven-meter (23-foot) high walls. Burney speculated that the deposit could have been left by a massive tsunami, but he was unable to verify the claim.

The deposits remained a mystery until the Tohoku earthquake hit Japan in 2011. It caused water to surge inland like a rapidly rising tide, reaching heights up to 39 meters (128 feet) above the normal sea level. After that tsunami deluged the island nation, scientists began to question Hawaii's current tsunami evacuation maps. The maps are based largely upon the 1946 tsunami, which followed a magnitude 8.6 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands and caused water to rise only two and a half meters (8 feet) up the side of the Makauwahi sinkhole.

"[The Japan earthquake] was bigger than almost any seismologist thought possible," said Butler. "Seeing [on live TV] the devastation it caused, I began to wonder, did we get it right in Hawaii? Are our evacuation zones the correct size?"

To find out, the study's authors used a wave model to predict how a tsunami would flood the Kauai coastline. They simulated earthquakes with magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.6 originating at different locations along the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, a 3,400-kilometer (2,113-mile) long ocean trench stretching along the southern coast of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands where the Pacific tectonic plate is slipping under the North American plate.

The researchers found that the unique geometry of the eastern Aleutians would direct the largest post-earthquake tsunami energy directly toward the Hawaiian Islands. Inundation models showed that an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 9.0 in just the right spot could produce water levels on the shore that reached eight to nine meters (26 to 30 feet) high, easily overtopping the Makauwahi sinkhole wall where the ocean deposits were found.

The authors used radiocarbon-dated marine deposits from Sedanka Island off the coast of Alaska and along the west coasts of Canada and the United States dating back to the same time period as the Makauwahi deposit to show that all three sediments could have come from the same tsunami and provide some evidence that the event occurred, according to the study.

"[The authors] stitched together geological evidence, anthropological information as well as geophysical modeling to put together this story that is tantalizing for a geologist but it's frightening for people in Hawaii," said Robert Witter, a geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Anchorage, Alaska who was not involved in the study.

According to Witter, it is possible that a massive tsunami hit Hawaii hundreds of years ago, based on the deposits found in the Kauai sinkhole, but he said it is difficult to determine if all three locations experienced the same event based on radiocarbon dating alone.

Radiocarbon dating only gives scientists a rough estimate of the age of a deposit, he said. All three locations offer evidence of a great tsunami occurring between 350 and 575 years ago, but it is hard to know if it was the same tsunami or ones that occurred hundreds of years apart.

"An important next thing to do is to look for evidence for tsunamis elsewhere in the Hawaiian island chain," said Witter.

Fryer, of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, is confident that more evidence of the massive tsunami will be found, confirming that events of this magnitude have rocked the island chain in the not-so-distant past.

"I've seen the deposit," said Fryer, who was not involved in the study. "I'm absolutely convinced it's a tsunami, and it had to be a monster tsunami."

Fryer is so convinced that he has worked with the city and county of Honolulu to update their tsunami evacuation maps to include the possibility of a massive tsunami the size of the one detailed in the new study hitting the islands. The county hopes to have the new maps distributed to residents by the end of the year, he said.

"We prepared ourselves for the worst tsunami that's likely to happen in one hundred years," Fryer said of the current tsunami evacuation maps based on the 1946 event. "What hit Japan was a thousand-year event … and this scenario [in the eastern Aleutians] is a thousand year event."

Source: American Geophysical Union

Read More

Many older adults still homebound after 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

A new study, published online in the journal Age and Ageing, shows that the homebound status of adults over the age of 65 in the aftermath of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is still a serious public health concern. Of 2,327 older adults surveyed, approximately 20% were found to be homebound.

A team of researchers led by Naoki Kondo of the University of Tokyo's School of Public Health studied data from the city of Rikuzentakata, an area that was seriously damaged by the disaster. Of its total population of 23,302 before the events of 2011, 1,773 people died or are still missing. Of 7,730 houses, 3,368 (43.6%) were affected with 3,159 "completely destroyed." Much of the population had been concentrated in flat coastal areas, and since the community infrastructure was totally shattered, many people who lost their houses insisted on moving to areas in the mountains.

This study used home-visit interviews with 2,327 adults over 65 years old (1027 men; 1300 women), and was carried out between August 2012 and October 2013. Interviewers gathered information of current morbidity, socio-economic status, health behaviour (diet, smoking, and alcohol intake), frequency of going out, and social support. 19.6% of men and 23.2% of women were shown to be homebound, defined as only leaving the house every 4 or more days. Of those older adults who were classified as homebound, around 40% also had no contact with neighbours.

Information was also obtained on the locations of grocery stores, convenience stores, and shopping centres from the online community directory database in August 2012. Information on shopper bus stops and hawker sites was provided by a disaster support team, and the team also collated road network data. This geographical analysis indicated that distances to retail stores was associated with the risk of people being homebound.

Lead author Naoki Kondo says: "This study has important implications for public health, especially in the setting of post-disaster community reconstruction. First, community diagnoses in a post-disaster setting should cover the built environment, including access to shopping facilities. Second, to prevent older victims of a disaster such as the Great East Japan Earthquake being homebound, it is clearly essential to provide access to the facilities that fulfil their daily needs.

"Given the findings of this study, such access could be increased by the private sector, suggesting the importance of public-private partnerships for post-disaster reconstruction."

Key messages:

• The homebound status of older victims of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is a matter of public health concern
• Geographical analysis indicated that distances to retail stores was associated with the risk of people being homebound
• Hawker and shopping bus services contributed to improved access, providing more opportunities for going out

Source: Oxford University Press (OUP)

Read More

Underwater landslide doubled size of 2011 Japanese tsunami

An ocean engineer at the University of Rhode Island has found that a massive underwater landslide, combined with the 9.0 earthquake, was responsible for triggering the deadly tsunami that struck Japan in March 2011.

Professor Stephan Grilli, an international leader in the study of tsunamis, said the generally accepted explanation for the cause of the tsunami had been the earthquake, the fifth largest ever measured, which created a significant uplift and subsidence of the seafloor. While that adequately explains the 10-meter surge that affected much of the impacted area, Grilli said it cannot account for the 40-meter waves that struck a 100-kilometer area of Japan's mountainous Sanriku Coast.

"Computer models have not been able to explain the large inundation and run-up on the Sanriku Coast using the earthquake alone," Grilli said. "Our model could only get inundation up to 16 or 18 meters, not 40. So we knew there must be another cause."

His findings were published this week in the journal Marine Geology.
In a series of models, Grilli and his former doctoral student Jeff Harris worked backwards in time to recreate the movement of the seafloor from the earthquake and concluded that an additional movement underwater about 100 kilometers north of the earthquake's epicenter must have occurred to propagate the large waves that struck Sanriku. So the URI engineers and colleagues at the British Geological Survey and the University of Tokyo went looking for evidence that something else happened there.
Reviewing surveys of the seafloor conducted by Japanese scientists before and after the earthquake, the scientists found signs of a large slump on the seafloor -- a rotational landslide 40 kilometers by 20 kilometers in extent and 2 kilometers thick that traveled down the slope of the Japan Trench, leaving a horizontal footprint the size of Paris that could only have been created by a 100-meter uplift in the seafloor. The earthquake only raised the seafloor 10 meters.

"Underwater landslides tend to create shorter period tsunami waves, and they tend to concentrate their energy in a small stretch of coastline," said Grilli. "The train of waves from the landslide, combined with the earthquake generated waves, together created the 40 meter inundation along the Sanriku Coast."

Grilli said it has been difficult to convince his Japanese colleagues of his research group's results. Most assumed that the massive size of the earthquake was enough to create the waves that were observed.
"It raises questions about how we've been doing tsunami predictions in the past," he said. "We generally have just considered the largest possible earthquake, but we seldom consider underwater landslides as an additional source," even though large tsunamis in 1998 in Papua New Guinea and in 1946 in the Aleutian Islands were found to be generated by a combination of earthquakes and underwater landslides.

Grilli also said that his analysis is under considerable scrutiny because it brings into question whether Japan had adequately prepared for natural disasters prior to the 2011 event.

"There is a lot at stake in Japan," he said. "Tsunami scientists working for government agencies use tsunami return periods that are much too low in their calculations, leading them to underestimate the tsunami risk. All of the safety procedures they have in place, including at nuclear power plants, are still based on underestimating the maximum earthquake likely to strike Japan, and they underestimate the maximum tsunami, too. Japan is working toward revising their approach to tsunami hazard assessment, but this will take time."

Source: University of Rhode Island

Read More

2010 Chilean earthquake causes icequakes in Antarctica

The HOWD Polenet seismic station is located near the northwest corner of the Antarctica's Ellsworth Mountains. It was the station that showed the clearest indication of high-frequency signals following the 2010 Chilean earthquake.
Credit: Eric Kendrick/Ohio State University

Seismic events aren't rare occurrences on Antarctica, where sections of the frozen desert can experience hundreds of micro-earthquakes an hour due to ice deformation. Some scientists call them icequakes. But in March of 2010, the ice sheets in Antarctica vibrated a bit more than usual because of something more than 3,000 miles away: the 8.8-magnitude Chilean earthquake. A new Georgia Institute of Technology study published in Nature Geoscience is the first to indicate that Antarctica's frozen ground is sensitive to seismic waves from distant earthquakes.

To study the quake's impact on Antarctica, the Georgia Tech team looked at seismic data from 42 stations in the six hours before and after the 3:34 a.m. event. The researchers used the same technology that allowed them to "hear" the seismic response at large distances for the devastating 2011 magnitude 9 Japan earthquake as it rumbled through Earth. In other words, they simply removed the longer-period signals as the seismic waves spread from the distant epicenter to identify high-frequency signals from nearby sources. Nearly 30 percent (12 of the 42 stations) showed clear evidence of high-frequency seismic signals as the surface-wave arrived on Antarctica.

"We interpret these events as small icequakes, most of which were triggered during or immediately after the passing of long-period Rayleigh waves generated from the Chilean mainshock," said Zhigang Peng, an associate professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences who led the study. "This is somewhat different from the micro-earthquakes and tremor caused by both Love and Rayleigh-type surface waves that traditionally occur in other tectonically active regions thousands of miles from large earthquakes.

Peng says the subtle difference is that micro-earthquakes respond to both shearing and volumetric deformation from distant events. The newly found icequakes respond only to volumetric deformation.

"Such differences may be subtle, but they tell us that the mechanism of these triggered icequakes and small earthquakes are different," Peng added. "One is more like cracking, while the other is like a shear slip event. It's similar to two hands passing each other."

Some of the icequakes were quick bursts and over in less than one second. Others were long duration, tremor-like signals up to 10 seconds. They occurred in various parts of the continent, including seismic stations along the coast and near the South Pole.

The researchers found the clearest indication of induced high-frequency signals at station HOWD near the northwest corner of the Ellsworth Mountains. Short bursts occurred when the P wave hit the station, then continued again when the Rayleigh wave arrived. The triggered icequakes had very similar high waveform patterns, which indicates repeated failure at a single location, possibly by the opening of cracks.

Peng says the source locations of the icequakes are difficult to determine because there isn't an extensive seismic network coverage in Antarctica.

"But at least some of the icequakes themselves create surface waves, so they are probably formed very close to the ice surface," he added. "While we cannot be certain, we suspect they simply reflect fracturing of ice in the near surface due to alternating volumetric compressions and expansions as the Rayleigh waves passed through Antarctica's frozen ice."

Antarctica was originally not on the research team's target list. While examining seismic stations in the Southern Hemisphere, Peng "accidently" found the triggered icequakes at a few openly available stations. He and former Georgia Tech postdoctoral student Jake Walter (now a research scientist at the Institute for Geophysics at UT Austin) then reached out to other seismologists (the paper's four co-authors) who were in charge of deploying more broadband seismometers in Antarctica.

Source: Georgia Institute of Technology

Read More

The Extinct undersea volcanoes squashed under Earth's crust cause tsunami earthquakes

New research has revealed the causes and warning signs of rare tsunami earthquakes, which may lead to improved detection measures.

Tsunami earthquakes happen at relatively shallow depths in the ocean and are small in terms of their magnitude. However, they create very large tsunamis, with some earthquakes that only measure 5.6 on the Richter scale generating waves that reach up to ten metres when they hit the shore.

A global network of seismometers enables researchers to detect even the smallest earthquakes. However, the challenge has been to determine which small magnitude events are likely to cause large tsunamis.

In 1992, a magnitude 7.2 tsunami earthquake occurred off the coast of Nicaragua in Central America causing the deaths of 170 people. Six hundred and thirty seven people died and 164 people were reported missing following a tsunami earthquake off the coast of Java, Indonesia, in 2006, which measured 7.2 on the Richter scale.

The new study, published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters, reveals that tsunami earthquakes may be caused by extinct undersea volcanoes causing a "sticking point" between two sections of Earth's crust called tectonic plates, where one plate slides under another.
The researchers from Imperial College London and GNS Science in New Zealand used geophysical data collected for oil and gas exploration and historical accounts from eye witnesses relating to two tsunami earthquakes, which happened off the coast of New Zealand's north island in 1947. Tsunami earthquakes were only identified by geologists around 35 years ago, so detailed studies of these events are rare.

The team located two extinct volcanoes off the coast of Poverty Bay and Tolaga Bay that have been squashed and sunk beneath the crust off the coast of New Zealand, in a process called subduction.
The researchers suggest that the volcanoes provided a "sticking point" between a part of Earth's crust called the Pacific plate, which was trying to slide underneath the New Zealand plate. This caused a build-up of energy, which was released in 1947, causing the plates to "unstick" and the Pacific plate to move and the volcanoes to become subsumed under New Zealand. This release of the energy from both plates was unusually slow and close to the seabed, causing large movements of the sea floor, which led to the formation of very large tsunami waves.

All these factors combined, say the researchers, are factors that contribute to tsunami earthquakes. The researchers say that the 1947 New Zealand tsunami earthquakes provide valuable insights into what geological factors cause these events. They believe the information they've gathered on these events could be used to locate similar zones around the world that could be at risk from tsunami earthquakes. Eyewitnesses from these tsunami earthquakes also describe the type of ground movement that occurred and this provides valuable clues about possible early warning signals for communities.

Dr Rebecca Bell, from the Department of Earth Science and Engineering at Imperial College London, says: "Tsunami earthquakes don't create massive tremors like more conventional earthquakes such as the one that hit Japan in 2011, so residents and authorities in the past haven't had the same warning signals to evacuate. These types of earthquakes were only identified a few decades ago, so little information has been collected on them. Thanks to oil exploration data and eyewitness accounts from two tsunami earthquakes that happened in New Zealand more than 70 years ago, we are beginning to understand for first time the factors that cause these events. This could ultimately save lives."

By studying the data and reports, the researchers have built up a picture of what happened in New Zealand in 1947 when the tsunami earthquakes hit. In the March earthquake, eyewitnesses around Poverty Bay on the east coast of the country, close to the town of Gisborne, said that they didn't feel violent tremors, which are characteristic of typical earthquakes. Instead, they felt the ground rolling, which lasted for minutes, and brought on a sense of sea sickness. Approximately 30 minutes later the bay was inundated by a ten metre high tsunami that was generated by a 5.9 magnitude offshore earthquake. In May, an earthquake measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale happened off the coast of Tolaga Bay, causing an approximate six metre high tsunami to hit the coast. No lives were lost in the New Zealand earthquakes as the areas were sparsely populated in 1947. However, more recent tsunami earthquakes elsewhere have devastated coastal communities.

The researchers are already working with colleagues in New Zealand to develop a better warning system for residents. In particular, new signage is being installed along coastal regions to alert people to the early warning signs that indicate a possible tsunami earthquake. In the future, the team hope to conduct new cutting-edge geophysical surveys over the sites of other sinking volcanoes to better understand their characteristics and the role they play in generating this unusual type of earthquake.

Source: Imperial College London

Read More

The Disaster planning: Risk assessment vital to development of mitigation plans

Wildfires and flooding affect many more people in the USA than earthquakes and landslide and yet the dread, the perceived risk, of the latter two is much greater than for those hazards that are more frequent and cause greater loss of life. Research published in the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, suggests that a new paradigm for risk assessment is needed so that mitigation plans in the face of natural disasters can be framed appropriately by policy makers and those in the emergency services.

Maura Knutson (nee Hurley) and Ross Corotis of the University of Colorado, Boulder, explain that earlier efforts for incorporating a sociological perspective and human risk perception into hazard-mitigation plans, commonly used equivalent dollar losses from natural hazard events as the statistic by which to make decisions. Unfortunately, this fails to take into consideration how people view natural hazards, the team reports. Moreover, this can lead to a lack of public support and compliance with emergency plans when disaster strikes and lead to worse outcomes in all senses.

The researchers have therefore developed a framework that combines the usual factors for risk assessment, injuries, deaths and economic and collateral loss with the human perception of the risks associated with natural disasters. The framework includes risk perception by graphing natural hazards against "dread" and "familiarity." These two variables are well known to social psychologists as explaining the greatest variability in an individual's perception of risk, whether considering earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, avalanche, even volcanic activity. "Understanding how the public perceives the risk for various natural hazards can assist decision makers in developing and communicating policy decisions," the team says.

The higher the perceived risk of a natural disaster, the more people want to see that risk reduced and that means seeing their tax dollars spent on mitigation and preparation. For example, far more money is spent on reducing earthquake risk than on reducing the risk from wildfires, perhaps because the perceived risk is much greater, even though both will cause significant losses of life and property. The team's new framework for risk assessment will act as an aid in decision making for these types of situations as well as perhaps even offering a way to give members of the public a clearer understanding of actual risk rather than perceived risk.

Source: Inderscience Publishers

Read More

The Australian tsunami database reveals threat to continent

Australia's coastline has been struck by up to 145 possible tsunamis since prehistoric times, causing deaths previously unreported in the scientific literature, a UNSW study has revealed.

The largest recorded inundation event in Australia was caused by an earthquake off Java in Indonesia on 17 July 2006, which led to a tsunami that reached up to 7.9 metres above sea level on land at Steep Point in Western Australia.

The continent was also the site of the oldest known tsunami in the world -- an asteroid impact that occurred 3.47 billion years ago in what is now the Pilbara district of Western Australia.

Details of the 145 modern day and prehistoric events are outlined in a revised Australian tsunami database, which has been extensively updated by UNSW researchers, Professor James Goff and Dr Catherine Chagué-Goff.

"Our research has led to an almost three-fold increase in the number of events identified -- up from 55 in 2007. NSW has the highest number of tsunamis in the database, with 57, followed by Tasmania with 40, Queensland with 26 and Western Australia with 23," says Professor Goff, of the UNSW School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences.

"Historical documents indicate that up to 11 possible tsunami-related deaths have occurred in Australia since 1883. This is remarkable, because our tsunami-prone neighbour, New Zealand, has only one recorded death."

Professor Goff and Dr Chagué-Goff, who also works at the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, scoured scientific papers, newspaper reports, historical records and other tsunami databases to update the 2007 Australian database.

"And it is still incomplete. Much more work needs to be done, especially to identify prehistoric events and those on the east coast. Our goal is to better understand the tsunami hazard to Australia and the region. The geographical spread of events and deaths suggests the east coast faces the most significant risk," says Professor Goff.

The results are published in the journal Progress in Physical Geography.
The country's largest tsunami had been listed in 2007 as one that hit Western Australia following an earthquake off Sumba Island in Indonesia on 19 August 1977, but this rating was based on wrong information about its wave height.

Giant wave heights of about 13 metres -- bigger than those of the current record-holding event in 2006 -- have also been attributed to a possible tsunami on 8 April 1911 in Warrnambool in Victoria, but no hard evidence is available as yet to back this up.

The study identified three prehistoric events that had an impact across the whole of the South West Pacific Ocean: an asteroid impact 2.5 million years ago and large earthquakes about 2900 years ago and in the mid-15th Century.

Source: University of New South Wales

Read More

The Network for tracking earthquakes exposes glacier activity: Accidental find offers big potential for research on Alaska's glaciers

Alaska’s seismic network records thousands of quakes produced by glaciers, capturing valuable data that scientis ts could use to better understand their behavior, but instead their seismic signals are set aside as oddities. The current earthquake monitoring system could be “tweaked” to target the dynamic movement of the state’s glaciers.
Credit: Chris Larson

Alaska's seismic network records thousands of quakes produced by glaciers, capturing valuable data that scientists could use to better understand their behavior, but instead their seismic signals are set aside as oddities. The current earthquake monitoring system could be "tweaked" to target the dynamic movement of the state's glaciers, suggests State Seismologist Michael West, who will present his research today at the annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America (SSA).

"In Alaska, these glacial events have been largely treated as a curiosity, a by-product of earthquake monitoring," said West, director of the Alaska Earthquake Center, which is responsible for detecting and reporting seismic activity across Alaska.

The Alaska seismic network was upgraded in 2007-08, improving its ability to record and track glacial events. "As we look across Alaska's glacial landscape and comb through the seismic record, there are thousands of these glacial events. We see patterns in the recorded data that raise some interesting questions about the glaciers," said West.

As a glacier loses large pieces of ice on its leading edge, a process called calving, the Alaska Earthquake Center's monitoring system automatically records the event as an earthquake. Analysts filter out these signals in order to have a clear record of earthquake activity for the region. In the discarded data, West sees opportunity.

"We have amassed a large record of glacial events by accident," said West. "The seismic network can act as an objective tool for monitoring glaciers, operating 24/7 and creating a data flow that can alert us to dynamic changes in the glaciers as they are happening." It's when a glacier is perturbed or changing in some way, says West, that the scientific community can learn the most.

Since 2007, the Alaska Earthquake Center has recorded more than 2800 glacial events along 600 km of Alaska's coastal mountains. The equivalent earthquake sizes for these events range from about 1 to 3 on the local magnitude scale. While calving accounts for a significant number of the recorded quakes, each glacier's terminus -- the end of any glacier where the ice meets the ocean -- behaves differently. Seasonal variations in weather cause glaciers to move faster or slower, creating an expected seasonal cycle in seismic activity. But West and his colleagues have found surprises, too.

In mid-August 2010, the Columbia Glacier's seismic activity changed radically from being relatively quiet to noisy, producing some 400 quakes to date. These types of signals from the Columbia Glacier have been documented every single month since August 2010, about the time when the Columbia terminus became grounded on sill, stalling its multi-year retreat.

That experience highlighted for West the value of the accidental data trove collected by the Alaska Earthquake Center. "The seismic network is blind to the cause of the seismic events, cataloguing observations that can then be validated," said West, who suggests the data may add value to ongoing field studies in Alaska.

Many studies of Alaska's glaciers have focused on single glacier analyses with dedicated field campaigns over short periods of time and have not tracked the entire glacier complex over the course of years. West suggests leveraging the data stream may help the scientific community observe the entire glacier complex in action or highlight in real time where scientists could look to catch changes in a glacier.

"This is low-hanging fruit," said West of the scientific advances waiting to be gleaned from the data.

Source: Seismological Society of America

Read More

The Earthquake simulation tops one petaflop mark

Visualization of vibrations inside the Merapi volcano. Credit: Alex Breuer/Christian Pelties

A team of computer scientists, mathematicians and geophysicists at Technische Universitaet Muenchen (TUM) and Ludwig-Maximillians Universitaet Muenchen (LMU) have -- with the support of the Leibniz Supercomputing Center of the Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities (LRZ) -- optimized the SeisSol earthquake simulation software on the SuperMUC high performance computer at the LRZ to push its performance beyond the "magical" one petaflop/s mark -- one quadrillion floating point operations per second.

Geophysicists use the SeisSol earthquake simulation software to investigate rupture processes and seismic waves beneath Earth's surface. Their goal is to simulate earthquakes as accurately as possible to be better prepared for future events and to better understand the fundamental underlying mechanisms. However, the calculations involved in this kind of simulation are so complex that they push even super computers to their limits.

In a collaborative effort, the workgroups led by Dr. Christian Pelties at the Department of Geo and Environmental Sciences at LMU and Professor Michael Bader at the Department of Informatics at TUM have optimized the SeisSol program for the parallel architecture of the Garching supercomputer "SuperMUC," thereby speeding up calculations by a factor of five.

Using a virtual experiment they achieved a new record on the SuperMUC: To simulate the vibrations inside the geometrically complex Merapi volcano on the island of Java, the supercomputer executed 1.09 quadrillion floating point operations per second. SeisSol maintained this unusually high performance level throughout the entire three hour simulation run using all of SuperMUC's 147,456 processor cores.

Complete parallelization
This was possible only following the extensive optimization and the complete parallelization of the 70,000 lines of SeisSol code, allowing a peak performance of up to 1.42 petaflops. This corresponds to 44.5 percent of Super MUC's theoretically available capacity, making SeisSol one of the most efficient simulation programs of its kind worldwide.

"Thanks to the extreme performance now achievable, we can run five times as many models or models that are five times as large to achieve significantly more accurate results. Our simulations are thus inching ever closer to reality," says the geophysicist Dr. Christian Pelties. "This will allow us to better understand many fundamental mechanisms of earthquakes and hopefully be better prepared for future events."

The next steps are earthquake simulations that include rupture processes on the meter scale as well as the resultant destructive seismic waves that propagate across hundreds of kilometers. The results will improve the understanding of earthquakes and allow a better assessment of potential future events.
"Speeding up the simulation software by a factor of five is not only an important step for geophysical research," says Professor Michael Bader of the Department of Informatics at TUM. "We are, at the same time, preparing the applied methodologies and software packages for the next generation of supercomputers that will routinely host the respective simulations for diverse geoscience applications."
Besides Michael Bader and Christian Pelties also Alexander Breuer, Dr. Alexander Heinecke and Sebastian Rettenberger (TUM) as well as Dr. Alice Agnes Gabriel and Stefan Wenk (LMU) worked on the project. In June the results will be presented at the International Supercomputing Conference in Leipzig (ISC'14, Leipzig, 22-June 26, 2014; title: Sustained Petascale Performance of Seismic Simulation with SeisSol on SuperMUC)

Source: Technische Universitaet Muenchen

Read More